Wednesday, August 5, 2020

Current trend expected to stay

The Covid-19 pandemic still seems far from peaking out, as the number of cases continued to rise across the world. While market seems to be in a consolidation mode with the momentum slowing down in the last couple of days. This trend is expected to stay such since the Covid-19 uncertainties continue.


OPEC is planning on reversing some of the output cuts initiated earlier this year heading into August, and any impact of this on crude prices will be another factor to watch. The Reserve Bank of India is likely to leave the repo rate unchanged in the forthcoming money policy due on 6th August 2020.


The sales percentage has increased in the midst of the Covid-19 pandemic as customers prefer personal mobility over public transport. July auto sales numbers showed a solid bounce back. Top industry players seem to be leading the sector’s crawl back to normalcy amid an easing coronavirus lockdown. More than 250 companies will announce their financial results next week for the quarter ended 30th June 2020.

 

The benchmark RSS4 grade rubber closed at `.132.50 a kg at Kottayam, while RSS3 grade closed at `.121.42 a kg at Bangkok and Malaysian SMR20 closed at `.93.95 a kg. On ICEX August 2020 futures closed at `.133.94 a kg, September at `.131.00, October at `.134.37, November at `.135.71, December at `.137.07 and January 2021 closed at `.138.43 a kg.

 

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Wednesday, May 27, 2020

GDP growth seen at 1.2% for Q4


The Reserve Bank of India Governor, Shaktikanta Das, last week, announced that the economy is going to contract in the current fiscal. He refrained from putting out a figure but said that growth impulses could strengthen in the latter half of the current fiscal.

India’s gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have grown at 1.2% in the last quarter of 2019-20 as economic activity came to a standstill in the last week of March 2020 due to the nationwide lockdown to contain spread of Covid-19. While according to the SBI’s research report, the loss of at least Rs.1.4 lakh crore during those seven days of lockdown and the GDP growth is likely to be 4.2% for 2019-20.

The fourth quarter GDP growth number for 2019-20 will be announced by the National Statistical Office (NSO) on 29th May 2020.

In the third quarter of 2019-20, GDP growth slipped to a nearly seven-year low of 4.7%. In Q1 and Q2, GDP growth was 5.1% and 5.6%, respectively. Subsequently, the annual 2019-20 GDP growth would be around 4.2% as compared to 5% as it was projected earlier, the report said.

While ICRA has estimated that the Indian economy will grow by 1.9% in the January-March period while for the entire fiscal (2019-20), it projects a growth rate of 4.3%. This is in stark contrast to a growth of 6.1 per cent registered in 2018-19. Similarly, CRISIL has also forecast the economic growth for January-March quarter to come in at a dismal 0.5% while it estimates 2019-20 growth at 4%.

The benchmark RSS4 grade rubber closed at `.115 a kg at Kottayam, while RSS3 grade closed at `.106.95 a kg at Bangkok and Malaysian SMR20 closed at `.84.92 a kg. On ICEX June 2020 futures closed at `.117.39 a kg, July at `.117.48, August at `.116.92, September at `.118.11, October at `.119.29 and November closed at `.120.48 a kg. Tokyo Commodity Exchange June 2020 futures series closed at ¥137.8 a kg, July at ¥143.5, August at ¥147.2, September at ¥149.5, October at ¥152.2 and the contract for delivery in November 2020 closed at ¥154 a kg.

To read Rubber4U – 1st June 2020 issue: http://rubber4u.com/Public/Abcd.pdf