Wednesday, May 27, 2020

GDP growth seen at 1.2% for Q4


The Reserve Bank of India Governor, Shaktikanta Das, last week, announced that the economy is going to contract in the current fiscal. He refrained from putting out a figure but said that growth impulses could strengthen in the latter half of the current fiscal.

India’s gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have grown at 1.2% in the last quarter of 2019-20 as economic activity came to a standstill in the last week of March 2020 due to the nationwide lockdown to contain spread of Covid-19. While according to the SBI’s research report, the loss of at least Rs.1.4 lakh crore during those seven days of lockdown and the GDP growth is likely to be 4.2% for 2019-20.

The fourth quarter GDP growth number for 2019-20 will be announced by the National Statistical Office (NSO) on 29th May 2020.

In the third quarter of 2019-20, GDP growth slipped to a nearly seven-year low of 4.7%. In Q1 and Q2, GDP growth was 5.1% and 5.6%, respectively. Subsequently, the annual 2019-20 GDP growth would be around 4.2% as compared to 5% as it was projected earlier, the report said.

While ICRA has estimated that the Indian economy will grow by 1.9% in the January-March period while for the entire fiscal (2019-20), it projects a growth rate of 4.3%. This is in stark contrast to a growth of 6.1 per cent registered in 2018-19. Similarly, CRISIL has also forecast the economic growth for January-March quarter to come in at a dismal 0.5% while it estimates 2019-20 growth at 4%.

The benchmark RSS4 grade rubber closed at `.115 a kg at Kottayam, while RSS3 grade closed at `.106.95 a kg at Bangkok and Malaysian SMR20 closed at `.84.92 a kg. On ICEX June 2020 futures closed at `.117.39 a kg, July at `.117.48, August at `.116.92, September at `.118.11, October at `.119.29 and November closed at `.120.48 a kg. Tokyo Commodity Exchange June 2020 futures series closed at ¥137.8 a kg, July at ¥143.5, August at ¥147.2, September at ¥149.5, October at ¥152.2 and the contract for delivery in November 2020 closed at ¥154 a kg.

To read Rubber4U – 1st June 2020 issue: http://rubber4u.com/Public/Abcd.pdf

Saturday, April 18, 2020

Ensure strict compliance of lockdown


India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi had announced the extension of nationwide lockdown till 3rd May to contain the spread of Covid-19. The Centre in its revised guidelines has allowed certain relaxations in the notified services from 20th April in areas without Hotspots. A series of directives have been put in place to ensure a strict compliance of lockdown.

The Ministry of Home Affairs came out with some guidelines about what activities have been allowed and what will remain restricted. The ministry added that State and union territory governments shall not dilute lockdown guidelines in any manner, but they may impose stricter measures as per local requirements. The exemptions given will not be applicable to the hotspots. Now, wearing a mask will be mandatory across the nation.

The front-month contract in West Texas Intermediate, the New York-traded benchmark for U.S. oil, plunged to as low as $17.31 per barrel on 17th April, marking a bottom since 2001, as it headed for delivery. The contract settled at $18.27, down 8% on the day and 18.5% on the week. While Brent, the London-traded global benchmark for crude, performed better than US crude on Friday. Brent’s front-month, which has already moved to June, settled at $28.08 per barrel, up almost 1% on the day and 11.5% on the week.

There were no transactions for benchmark RSS4 grade rubber at Kottayam due to lockdown, while RSS3 grade closed at `.104.46 a kg at Bangkok and Malaysian SMR20 closed at `.86.38 a kg. On ICEX May 2020 futures closed at `.109.87 a kg, June at `.110.36, July at `.114.64, August at `.115.78, September at `.118.14 and October closed at `.119.32 a kg. Tokyo Commodity Exchange April 2020 futures series closed at ¥143.5 a kg, May at ¥142.9, June at ¥145.5, July at ¥149.3, August at ¥151.2 and the contract for delivery in September 2020 closed at ¥153.9 a kg.

To read Rubber4U – 1st May 2020 issue: http://rubber4u.com/Public/Abcd.pdf