Saturday, May 18, 2019

Worries over slowdown but prices on upward trend


Thailand will cut rubber exports by 126,240 tonnes for four months from 20th May to shore up natural rubber prices. Thailand will proceed as agreed by International Tripartite Rubber Council and will assess results every month.

The three countries (Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia) account for about 70% of the world's natural rubber production and decided for export cutbacks of 240,000 metric tonnes collectively to support prices. Besides curbing exports, the group also agreed to try to significantly ramp up the domestic use of rubber in each of the three producers through developments such as rubberised roads. 

The benchmark RSS4 grade rubber closed at `.137 a kg at Kottayam, while RSS3 grade closed at `.125.65 a kg at Bangkok and Malaysian SMR20 closed at `.106.75 a kg. On ICEX, June 2019, the futures closed at `.138.06 a kg, July at `.139.98, August at `.134.69, September at `.136.04, October at `.137.39 and November closed at `.138.76 a kg. Tokyo Commodity Exchange May 2019 futures series closed at ¥201.8 a kg, June at ¥202.7, July at ¥202.7, August at ¥199.4, September at ¥194.1 and the contract for delivery in October 2019 closed at ¥192.8 a kg.

To read Rubber4U – 15th May 2019 issue: http://rubber4u.com/Public/Abcd.pdf
For National Rubber Policy: http://rubber4u.com/Public/NRP2019.pdf

Sunday, May 12, 2019

Nervous outlook


The Indian market is getting more and more nervous as it approaches the end to the 7 stage general elections on 19th May. The results will be out on 23rd May. Brent crude futures are holding above $70 a barrel and the elevated oil prices will add to the miseries of the Indian market as the commodity price has a direct impact on the country's fiscal maths and currency.

According to a survey by FICCI, sentiment in the manufacturing sector remains positive as overall capacity utilisation rose to 80% during January-March 2019. India's April retail inflation report will be out on 13th May, while the wholesale inflation numbers will be released on 14th May. There is the anticipation for a slight uptick in inflation for April, while the market is hoping that it may still remain under the RBI's target, boosting the chance for another 25 basis point trim in key rates in June.

The two-day US-China trade talks concluded without bearing any fruit. However, hopes have not died completely as both the countries have agreed to hold more trade talk’s in the future in Beijing.

The benchmark RSS4 grade rubber closed at `.131.50 a kg at Kottayam, while RSS3 grade closed at `.122.32 a kg at Bangkok and Malaysian SMR20 closed at `.104.98 a kg. On ICEX, May 2019, the futures closed at `.132.47 a kg, June at `.134.57, July at `.136.09, August at `.133.36, September at `.134.69 and October closed at `.136.03 a kg. Tokyo Commodity Exchange May 2019 futures series closed at ¥195 a kg, June at ¥196, July at ¥195.9, August at ¥193.5, September at ¥188 and the contract for delivery in October 2019 closed at ¥186.7 a kg. On Monday, most probably Tocom futures contract for delivery in October may trade in the range of ¥185 & ¥190 a kg.

To read Rubber4U – 15th May 2019 issue: http://rubber4u.com/Public/Abcd.pdf