Friday, January 18, 2019
Thursday, January 17, 2019
Hoping for the best
Union Minister for Commerce
and Industry, Suresh Prabhu inaugurated three day event - India Rubber Expo
2019 at Bombay Exhibition Centre, Mumbai, India. Union Commerce Minister Suresh
Prabhu said rubber industry is a truly homegrown industry which is having a
deep impact on several global markets. Rubber industry will continue to grow
faster, create more employment opportunities, increase exports and add to the
economic output of India. Rubber industry can also contribute significantly in
India’s efforts to become a 5 trillion dollar economy.
According to Oke Nurwan, director general of
foreign trade at Indonesia’s Trade Ministry, a technical team at the
International Tripartite Rubber Council has proposed cutting shipments of
natural rubber by 300,000 tonnes this year as part of efforts to improve prices.
Indonesian and Malaysian governments have agreed on proposal for combined cut,
while Thailand so far hasn’t. Officials from the three countries were due to
gather in Bangkok during 19-20 January.
The benchmark RSS4 grade rubber closed at `.125
a kg at Kottayam, while RSS3 grade closed at `.113.37 a kg at
Bangkok and Malaysian SMR20 closed at `.96.17 a kg. On ICEX,
February 2019, the futures closed at `.126.16 a kg, March
at `.128.39, April at `.125.64, May at `.126.91,
June at `.128.17 and July closed at `.129.45 a kg. Tokyo
Commodity Exchange January 2019 futures series closed at ¥190 a kg, February at
¥187.3, March at ¥186, April at ¥185.5, May at ¥185 and the contract for delivery
in June 2019 closed at ¥184.8 a kg. On Friday, most probably Tocom futures
contract for delivery in June 2019 may trade in the range of ¥183 & ¥186 a
kg.
Friday, January 11, 2019
Worries over economic slowdown
Oil prices slipped on
concerns over economic growth after talks fell short of offering concrete steps
to end the Sino-U.S trade war, although OPEC led production cuts bolstered
sentiment in crude markets. Oil prices were also supported by comments from
U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Thursday that the central bank
had the ability to be patient on monetary policy. Brent crude futures closed at
$60.48 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude closed at $51.59 a barrel.
Kerala rubber growers
have decided to form a company to venture into manufacturing value added products
as demand has fallen for locally produced natural rubber. While International
Tripartite Rubber Council will be meeting in Bangkok on 19th and 20th January
2019 to find ways to boost rubber demand.
Benchmark
Tokyo rubber future ended slightly higher after surging to a nearly 7 month
high, supported by hopes that U.S-Sino talks may resolve a trade war and on
some fears that Thailand’s storm last week may have affected rubber output.
The benchmark RSS4 grade rubber closed at `.125
a kg at Kottayam, while RSS3 grade closed at `.110.57 a kg at
Bangkok and Malaysian SMR20 closed at `.97.27 a kg. On ICEX,
January 2019, the futures closed at `.125.99 a kg,
February at `.127.99, March at `.130.05, April at `.125.64,
May at `.126.91 and June closed at `.128.17 a kg. Tokyo
Commodity Exchange January 2019 futures series closed at ¥187.8 a kg, February
at ¥184.7, March at ¥184.8, April at ¥184.8, May at ¥184.2 and the contract for
delivery in June 2019 closed at ¥183.5 a kg.
Tuesday, January 8, 2019
Sentiment remains bearish
Oil prices rose on hopes that US-Chinese
talks in Beijing would bring a halt to trade disputes between the world's
biggest economies, while OPEC led supply cuts tightened markets. International
Brent crude futures were at $57.77 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate
(WTI) crude oil futures were at $48.85 per barrel.
The Indian rupee plunged by 53 paise to close
at 70.21 against the US dollar amid renewed concerns over widening of current
account deficit following constant rise in global crude oil prices.
Western India’s automotive exhibition ‘Pune
Auto Expo’ will be inaugurated by Maharashtra chief minister Devendra Fadnavis
at Ganesh Kala Krida indoor stadium-Pune, on 11th January. The four-day exhibition theme scheduled during
11 - 14 January 2019 is eco-friendly transportation of smart city. There will
be two days of technical conference, business meets and industrial visits to
automobile companies in the region. Experts will share their knowledge and
deliberate on topics focusing on the technological trends and business
practices.
The International Tripartite Rubber Council,
comprising of Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand are meeting in Bangkok on 19th
and 20th January 2019 to find ways to boost rubber demand.
Overall sentiment remains bearish due to
subdued demand from tyre manufacturers and expectations of a rise in global
rubber output. However, a spike in crude oil prices due to a cut in output by
West Asian and other producers might lend support to rubber prices.
The benchmark RSS4 grade rubber closed at `.124.50
a kg at Kottayam, while RSS3 grade closed at `.108.37 a kg at
Bangkok and Malaysian SMR20 closed at `.96.51 a kg. On ICEX,
January 2019, the futures closed at `.126.08 a kg,
February at `.128.05, March at `.130.19, April at `.125.64,
May at `.126.91 and June closed at `.128.17 a kg. Tokyo
Commodity Exchange January 2019 futures series closed at ¥181.4 a kg, February
at ¥180.2, March at ¥181.4, April at ¥181.7, May at ¥181.8 and the contract for
delivery in June 2019 closed at ¥181.6 a kg. On Wednesday, most probably Tocom
futures contract for delivery in June 2019 may trade in the range of ¥182 &
¥188 a kg.
Friday, January 4, 2019
Tropical Storm: Thailand's worst in nearly 30 years
Thai
Meteorological Department warned of torrential downpours and strong winds in 15
provinces in Thailand south, home to natural rubber plantations. The strong
winds are forecast with waves up to 3 to 5 meters high in the Gulf and 2 to 3
meters high in the Andaman Sea. There
are fears that the storm will be the worst to hit Thailand since 1989.
The benchmark RSS4 grade rubber closed at `.125
a kg at Kottayam, while RSS3 grade closed at `.108.70 a kg at
Bangkok and Malaysian SMR20 closed at `.96.36 a kg. On ICEX,
January 2019, the futures closed at `.127.63 a kg,
February at `.129.41, March at `.131.60, April at `.125.64,
May at `.126.91 and June closed at `.128.17 a kg. Tokyo
Commodity Exchange January 2019 futures series closed at ¥175.2 a kg, February at
¥175.8, March at ¥176, April at ¥176.6, May at ¥176.4 and the contract for
delivery in June 2019 closed at ¥177 a kg.
Friday, July 27, 2018
Markets will remain under pressure
Investors are more worried about possible
imposition of higher import tariffs on Japanese automobiles by the US
administration, but the benchmark Tokyo rubber futures recovered and ended on higher
note, but were down for a second straight week due to the fears over US-China
trade war which may hurt demand in China. The TOCOM rubber contract for January
2019 delivery finished 0.9 yen higher at 168.0 yen per kg.
The rubber contract on the Shanghai futures
exchange for September delivery fell 10 yuan to finish at 10,285 yuan per tonne
as concerns about oversupply persisted. According to Shanghai Futures Exchange,
rubber inventories in its warehouses rose 0.4% from last Friday.
A breakthrough in US-EU
trade talks also lent support to oil prices. Oil prices edged
lower after three days of gains, but took support from Saudi Arabia suspending oil shipments through the Red Sea's Bab
al-Mandeb strait, falling US inventories and easing trade
tensions between US and Europe.
According to Rubber Authority of Thailand, to
stimulate international prices, Thailand plans to cut supply of up to 50,000
tonnes of natural rubber output by reducing the rubber growing areas.
The benchmark RSS4 grade rubber closed at `.131.50
a kg at Kottayam, while RSS3 grade closed at `.101.24 a kg at
Bangkok and Malaysian SMR20 closed at `.90.75 a kg. On Multi
Commodity Exchange August 2018, the futures closed at `.132.12
a kg and September closed at `.129.98 a kg. Tokyo
Commodity Exchange August 2018 futures series closed at ¥161.6 a kg, September
at ¥162.6, October at ¥165.5.2, November at ¥168, December 2018 at ¥168.3 and
the contract for delivery in January 2019 closed at ¥168 a kg.
For 2018-19 Rubber
Forecast: http://rubber4u.com/Public/RForecast.pdf
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