Tuesday, December 16, 2014

Market improved on fresh buying


During April-November 2014 period, the cumulative value of exports increased 6.01% to `.1305792.96 crore, compared to `.1231786.75 crore during the same period of 2013. While cumulative value of imports for the period April-November 2014 was `.1915697.85 crore as against `.1801892.93 crore during the same period of 2013, registering a growth of 6.32%. The trade deficit for April-November 2014 was estimated at `.609904.89 crore.

The rupee on 28th August 2013 hit a lifetime low of 68.85 against the US dollar on strong demand for the American currency. For the FY 2014-15, the rupee dropped to its weakest level of 63.46 against dollar on 16th December 2014, as the dollar strengthened against other global currencies.

India's wholesale price inflation in November eased to 0%, compared to 1.77% in the previous month. The index for the rubber and plastic products group declined by 0.1% due to lower price of rubber products.

Kerala has sought `.1000 crore from Centre's Price Stabilisation Fund to provide relief to rubber growers suffering due to sharp fall in price of natural rubber. The Kerala Congress (M) delegation stressed that natural rubber imports into the country should be banned till the domestic price stabilised to a remunerative level. They pointed out that with Rubber Board statistics; it proves that there is a huge stock of rubber in the country, there is no justification for imports projected against the coming months.

Thailand rubber growers threatened to launch a massive protest if the government failed to increase prices to 80 baht per kg from about 40 baht currently within a month.

China’s import tariffs for rubber are currently set at 20% of the value and capped at 1,200 yuan a tonne. According to analysts, the ministry was expected to raise the cap to 1,600 yuan a tonne following recommendations by the local rubber association.

The market improved on fresh buying and short covering as sellers stayed back following the moderate gains. The benchmark RSS4 grade rubber closed at `.114.50 a kg at Kottayam, while RSS3 grade closed at `.102.53 a kg at Bangkok and Malaysian SMR20 closed at `.93.26 a kg. On National Multi Commodity Exchange December 2014 futures closed at `.113.71 a kg, January 2015 at `.114.69 and February at `.115.98 a kg. On Tokyo Commodity Exchange, December 2014 futures series closed at ¥181.5 a kg, January 2015 at ¥187.6, February at ¥193, March at ¥196.6, April at ¥200 and the contract for delivery in May 2015 closed at ¥201.8 a kg. On Wenesday, most probably Tocom futures contract for delivery in May 2015 may trade in positive range between ¥200 & ¥207 a kg.

To read Rubber4U – 15th December 2014 issue: http://rubber4u.com/Public/R4U12b.pdf

Sunday, December 14, 2014

Rubber4U

Will industry revive from crisis?


Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand are intensifying their efforts to help stop the decline in world rubber prices which is affecting their economies and planters. Plantation Industries and Commodities Minister, Amar Douglas Uggah Embas, said 11 Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC) nations contribute 95% to the world’s natural rubber supply and if we all worked together, it would make a big impact in handling the issue.

Indian Rubber Growers Association (IRGA) urged the government to immediately increase the import duty to 25%. The Kerala Government should also facilitate more uptake of rubber from the State to improve prices by way of tax concessions and explore the possibility of rubberisation of 20% of roads every year.

IRGA has also asked the domestic tyre manufacturers to buy rubber from India at the landed cost of imported rubber. Otherwise, the growers have threatened to boycott domestic tyre manufacturers and resort to buying of cheaper imported tyres, the same way as the raw material is being imported by the tyre industry. The growers association comprising UPASI, APK, IRGA etc have filed a petition under the Provisions of Safeguard before the Directorate of Safeguards-New Delhi to protect the domestic rubber growers from un-controlled and unrestricted imports.

The benchmark RSS4 grade rubber closed at `.113.50 a kg at Kottayam, while RSS3 grade closed at `.96.52 a kg at Bangkok and Malaysian SMR20 closed at `.89.36 a kg. On National Multi Commodity Exchange December 2014 futures closed at `.114.05 a kg, January 2015 at `.112.92 and February at `.113.33 a kg. On Tokyo Commodity Exchange, December 2014 futures series closed at ¥179.7 a kg, January 2015 at ¥184.8, February at ¥188.4, March at ¥192.2, April at ¥194.6 and the contract for delivery in May 2015 closed at ¥195.9 a kg. On Monday, most probably Tocom futures contract for delivery in May 2015 may trade in positive range between ¥195 & ¥205 a kg.

To know stock difference read Rubber4U – 15th December 2014 issue: http://rubber4u.com/Public/R4U12b.pdf
For 2014-15 Rubber Forecast: http://rubber4u.com/Public/RForecast.pdf

Tuesday, December 9, 2014

Rubber slips further down as oil prices falls


The crude oil price has fallen to its weakest point since October 2009 at US$62.87 per barrel, which has dropped slightly following the publication of China's monthly trade data, which came in well below the expectations. China's State Reserves Bureau is to buy 128,500 tonnes of rubber for its stockpiles, but market participants doubt the move would offer support to prices.

Rubber farmers are threatening to march on Bangkok next year if their demands for higher prices and an industry rescue plan are not met. The Thai government has announced four more short-term measures to arrest plummeting rubber prices ahead of a planned protest by farmers. While Tokyo Commodity Exchange rubber contract for May delivery had fallen to ¥193.6 per kg. It earlier in the day it touched a low of ¥192.7 a kg.

The benchmark RSS4 grade rubber closed at `.115 a kg at Kottayam, while RSS3 grade closed at `.95.28 a kg at Bangkok and Malaysian SMR20 closed at `.88.80 a kg. On National Multi Commodity Exchange December 2014 futures closed at `.113.32 a kg, January 2015 at `.113.36 and February at `.114.24 a kg. On Tokyo Commodity Exchange, December 2014 futures series closed at ¥180.7 a kg, January 2015 at ¥182.6, February at ¥186.1, March at ¥190, April at ¥192.2 and the contract for delivery in May 2015 closed at ¥193.6 a kg.

For 2014-15 Rubber Forecast: http://rubber4u.com/Public/RForecast.pdf

Wednesday, December 3, 2014

Inventories declining


Kerala chief minister Oommen Chandy informed the Assembly that government would demand a curb on import or hike in the import duty of rubber. The issue would be brought to the notice of the Prime Minister Narendra Modi when a state delegation meets him soon to apprise him of the state's concern. Further fall in price of rubber would not only adversely affect farmers, but also the state's economy. It would also ultimately hit tyre manufactures in the country, as production would fall with farmers shifting to other crops

The recent slump in oil prices continued to weigh on global markets. Brent crude oil dropped to $67.53 a barrel before recovering to trade around $70.54 a barrel. India, world's fourth largest oil consumer annual imports 3.8 million barrels of crude per day. As on 1st December, the international crude oil price of Indian Basket declined to US$ 67.72 a barrel. Rupee closed weaker at `.62.14 a US$ on 1st December as against `.61.97 a US$ on 28th November. Reserve Bank of India kept interest rates unchanged at 8% as widely expected.

According to the nation’s Ministry of Commerce, Thailand’s natural rubber exports declined 11% to 291641 tonnes in October. According to a data from the Rubber Trade Association of Japan, as on 20th November, crude rubber inventories at Japanese ports stood at 9,791 tonnes, down by 5.8% compared to 10 days earlier. Rubber inventories in the warehouses monitored by SHFE declined 24.3% to 136531 tonnes.

The benchmark RSS4 grade rubber closed at `.116.50 a kg at Kottayam, while RSS3 grade closed at `.97.48 a kg at Bangkok and Malaysian SMR20 closed at `.91.84 a kg. On National Multi Commodity Exchange December 2014 futures closed at `.114.75 a kg, January 2015 at `.115.77 and February at `.117.02 a kg. On Tokyo Commodity Exchange, December 2014 futures series closed at ¥184.1 a kg, January 2015 at ¥187.5, February at ¥190.8, March at ¥194.7, April at ¥196.7 and the contract for delivery in May 2015 closed at ¥198.2 a kg. On Thursday, most probably Tocom futures contract for delivery in May 2015 may trade between ¥198 & ¥202 a kg.


Rubber4U – 1st December 2014 issue: http://rubber4u.com/Public/R4U12a.pdf
For 2014-15 Rubber Forecast: http://rubber4u.com/Public/RForecast.pdf