Wednesday, May 27, 2020

GDP growth seen at 1.2% for Q4

The Reserve Bank of India Governor, Shaktikanta Das, last week, announced that the economy is going to contract in the current fiscal. He refrained from putting out a figure but said that growth impulses could strengthen in the latter half of the current fiscal.

India’s gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have grown at 1.2% in the last quarter of 2019-20 as economic activity came to a standstill in the last week of March 2020 due to the nationwide lockdown to contain spread of Covid-19. While according to the SBI’s research report, the loss of at least Rs.1.4 lakh crore during those seven days of lockdown and the GDP growth is likely to be 4.2% for 2019-20.

The fourth quarter GDP growth number for 2019-20 will be announced by the National Statistical Office (NSO) on 29th May 2020.

In the third quarter of 2019-20, GDP growth slipped to a nearly seven-year low of 4.7%. In Q1 and Q2, GDP growth was 5.1% and 5.6%, respectively. Subsequently, the annual 2019-20 GDP growth would be around 4.2% as compared to 5% as it was projected earlier, the report said.

While ICRA has estimated that the Indian economy will grow by 1.9% in the January-March period while for the entire fiscal (2019-20), it projects a growth rate of 4.3%. This is in stark contrast to a growth of 6.1 per cent registered in 2018-19. Similarly, CRISIL has also forecast the economic growth for January-March quarter to come in at a dismal 0.5% while it estimates 2019-20 growth at 4%.

The benchmark RSS4 grade rubber closed at `.115 a kg at Kottayam, while RSS3 grade closed at `.106.95 a kg at Bangkok and Malaysian SMR20 closed at `.84.92 a kg. On ICEX June 2020 futures closed at `.117.39 a kg, July at `.117.48, August at `.116.92, September at `.118.11, October at `.119.29 and November closed at `.120.48 a kg. Tokyo Commodity Exchange June 2020 futures series closed at ¥137.8 a kg, July at ¥143.5, August at ¥147.2, September at ¥149.5, October at ¥152.2 and the contract for delivery in November 2020 closed at ¥154 a kg.

To read Rubber4U – 1st June 2020 issue: