Tuesday, September 29, 2015

Cut in RBI repo rate


Today, Reserve Bank of India cut its key repo rate by 50 basis points to 6.75%, with inflation running at record lows and the economy in danger of slowing down. On the other hand, the international crude oil price of Indian basket declined 0.31% to US$44.79 a barrel on 28th September as against US$44.93 a barrel on 25th September. While Rupee closed stronger at `.66.08 per US$ on 28th September as against `.66.10 per US$ on 25th September.

The benchmark RSS3 grade closed at `.86.94 a kg at Bangkok and Malaysian SMR20 closed at `.81.18 a kg. On National Multi Commodity Exchange October 2015, the futures were trading at at `.114 a kg, November at `.113.79, December at `.114 and January 2016 at `.114 a kg at 12.20 IST. Tokyo Commodity Exchange October 2015 futures series closed at ¥153 a kg, November at ¥154.4, December at ¥158.3, January 2016 at ¥161.4, February at ¥163 and the contract for delivery in March 2015 closed at ¥164.5 a kg.

To read Rubber4U – 1st October 2015 issue: http://rubber4u.com/Public/Abcd.pdf
For 2015-16 Rubber Forecast: http://rubber4u.com/Public/RForecast.pdf

Monday, September 28, 2015

Indication of short uptrend in October


The anti-dumping duty can be imposed only if goods are imported at dumping prices. Safeguard duties are measures to protect the domestic industry from a sudden surge in imports. The World Trade Organization does not allow such duties to be imposed for more than four years at a stretch.

In February 2015, Automotive Tyre Manufacturers' Association (ATMA), in its pre-budget submission, has urged the government to increase the customs duty on tyres from basic rate of 10% to 20% and putting imports of tyres under negative list in all trade agreements, so as to provide a level-playing field to the domestic manufacturing. And now ATMA has sought safeguard tariffs on car tyre imports from China and South Korea.

The benchmark RSS4 grade rubber closed at `.112.50 a kg at Kottayam, while RSS3 grade closed at `.87.91 a kg at Bangkok and Malaysian SMR20 closed at `.82.39 a kg. On National Multi Commodity Exchange October 2015 futures closed at `.114.25 a kg, November at `.113.92 and December at `.114.53 a kg. Tokyo Commodity Exchange October 2015 futures series closed at ¥160.1 a kg, November at ¥160.5, December at ¥164.6, January 2016 at ¥167.4, February at ¥169.4 and the contract for delivery in March 2015 closed at ¥170.6 a kg. On Tuesday, most probably Tocom futures contract for delivery in March 2016 may trade in negative and in the range of ¥162 & ¥167 a kg.

To read Rubber4U – 1st October 2015 issue: http://rubber4u.com/Public/Abcd.pdf

Thursday, September 24, 2015

Sentiment remains uncertain


Today, Tokyo Commodity Exchange rubber futures fell after long national holiday in Japan and slowing demand in China due to biggest fall in China’s factory activity. The Tocom rubber contract for February delivery had fallen ¥5.7 per kg. According to a private survey, activity in China’s factory sector unexpectedly shrank to a six and half year low in September, raising fears of a sharper slowdown.

The Shanghai rubber futures contract ended lower over concerns of slowing demand from China's automobile industry. Overall investor sentiment remains uncertain after the Federal Reserve declined to raise interest rates for the first time since 2006 last week.

Oil prices, along with the overall commodities sector, have been increasingly sensitive to any negative news on China's economy in recent weeks. Global oil markets tumbled on Wednesday, and on Thursday closed in green, WTI crude futures closed at US$ 44.91 per barrel, while Brent crude futures closed at US$ 48.17 a barrel.

Today the benchmark RSS4 grade rubber closed at `.112 a kg at Kottayam, while RSS3 grade closed at `.87.42 a kg at Bangkok and Malaysian SMR20 closed at `.80.92 a kg. On National Multi Commodity Exchange October 2015 futures closed at `.114.45 a kg, November at `.113.80, December at `.113.92 and January 2016 closed at `.114.09 a kg. On Tokyo Commodity Exchange, September 2015 futures series closed at ¥156 a kg, October at ¥155.4, November at ¥158.6, December 2015 at ¥161.5, January 2016 at ¥164.2, and the contract for delivery in February 2016 closed at ¥165.6 a kg.

To read Rubber4U – 1st October 2015 issue: http://rubber4u.com/Public/Abcd.pdf
For 2015-16 Rubber Forecast: http://rubber4u.com/Public/RForecast.pdf

Thursday, September 10, 2015

Rubber growers worried


According to news report, China plans to launch a Yuan denominated international benchmark for crude oil futures this year. The contract will be traded at the Shanghai International Energy Exchange and will be a price reference for medium sour crude, a variety preferred by Asian players. While Iran has reduced the quarterly price for its flagship crude to the lowest in three years in a bid to lure Asian buyers. The price reduction is just one of the steps taken by the OPEC producer to ramp up output and regain market share lost since U.S and European sanctions aimed at its nuclear program.

The All Rubber Planters’ Association has expressed concern over reduction in the tapping activities, due to fall in the rubber price. The tapping has come down by 30 to 40% in recent times and has demanded that the government hike the import duty on natural rubber to protect the domestic growers.

There are around 2 lakh hectares of land is available for expansion in Karnataka, of this, around 55,000 growers in the State have ventured into rubber cultivation on an area of around 50,000 hectares of land. They produce around 40,000 tonnes of natural rubber a year. With the crash in the prices of natural rubber, tapping of rubber from trees has come down by almost 40% during the year. While the re-planting in old rubber plantations has been stopped now, expansion of rubber crop in new areas has also come down drastically, said P Gopalakrishna Bhat, secretary of the association.

A seminar of rubber growers of Karnataka will be held at Jain Bhavan, Bypass Road, Puttur in Dakshina Kannada on 11th September at 11 am, to discuss and mitigate the woes of rubber growers. The seminar will be inaugurated by district minister B Ramanath Rai.

Today the benchmark RSS4 grade rubber closed at `.112 a kg at Kottayam, while RSS3 grade closed at `.90.78 a kg at Bangkok and Malaysian SMR20 closed at `.83.50 a kg. On National Multi Commodity Exchange September 2015 futures closed at `.113.86 a kg, October at `.113.17, November at `.113.09 and December closed at `.112.92 a kg. On Tokyo Commodity Exchange, September 2015 futures series closed at ¥160.7 a kg, October at ¥164.8, November at ¥166.5, December 2015 at ¥169.9, January 2016 at ¥171.8, and the contract for delivery in February 2016 closed at ¥172.9 a kg. On Friday, most probably Tocom futures contract for delivery in February 2016 may trade in the range of ¥175 & ¥179 a kg.

To read Rubber4U – 15th September 2015 issue: http://rubber4u.com/Public/Abcd.pdf
For 2015-16 Rubber Forecast: http://rubber4u.com/Public/RForecast.pdf

Wednesday, September 9, 2015

NR output up, import down


Crude oil prices remained steady but at low levels as concerns remained that high global production was being met by increasingly slowing demand. Oil prices have fallen almost 60% since June 2014 on a global supply glut, while production remained near record highs.

In India, natural rubber production rose 7.8% in August to 55,000 tonnes compared to 51,000 tonnes during August 2014, while consumption grew to 87,500 tonnes from 86,300 tonnes in August 2014. Natural rubber imports fell 32% to 33,292 tonnes, compared to same period of 2014.

During the April-August 2015 period, natural rubber production fell 11% to 2.42 lakh tonnes from 2.72 lakh tonnes during same period of 2014. Consumption declined by 1.7% to 418,080 tonnes from 425,285 tonnes. Imports decreased to 178,756 tonnes from 192,966 tonnes. However, exports grew to 194 tonnes during April-August 2015 from 184 tonnes in the same period of 2014.

Today the market was in positive trend and can expect the same tomorrow also. The benchmark RSS4 grade rubber closed at `.112 a kg at Kottayam, while RSS3 grade closed at `.90.72 a kg at Bangkok and Malaysian SMR20 closed at `.84.99 a kg. On National Multi Commodity Exchange September 2015 futures closed at `.113.68 a kg, October at `.113.58, November at `.113.47, December at `.113.33 and January 2016 closed at `.113 a kg. On Tokyo Commodity Exchange, September 2015 futures series closed at ¥162.9 a kg, October at ¥166.2, November at ¥168.1, December 2015 at ¥171, January 2016 at ¥173.4, and the contract for delivery in February 2016 closed at ¥174.3 a kg. On Thursday, most probably Tocom futures contract for delivery in February 2016 may trade in the range of ¥169 & ¥176 a kg.

To read Rubber4U – 15th September 2015 issue: http://rubber4u.com/Public/Abcd.pdf
For 2015-16 Rubber Forecast: http://rubber4u.com/Public/RForecast.pdf