Positive trend

Expectations of robust demand from China boosted rubber to a three-year high after buoyant car sales data for November. Natural rubber prices have soared to their highest since December 2013 on anticipation of increased Chinese demand and higher prices for competing synthetic rubber.

The most actively traded contract on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange climbed 3.7 yen to 259.7 yen ($2.25) per kilogram Tuesday, marking a third straight trading day of gains.

An agreement by OPEC, Russia and other oil producers outside the bloc to cut output has powered a sharp rise in crude oil prices and in turn will push synthetic rubber prices higher.

The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers reported vehicle sales of 2.9m in November, up 16.6% y-o-y. Chinese consumers have rushed to purchase vehicles before the tax breaks expire at the end of the year. If demand remains dynamic, more rubber will be needed for manufacturing tyres.

Rubber prices have also been supported by heavy rainfall in Thailand, which led to disrupted harvesting. The Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries last week said it expected the production of its members to increase only 0.1% in 2016, while demand is forecast to rise 4.1% compared to previous year.

The benchmark RSS4 grade rubber closed at `.131 a kg at Kottayam, while RSS3 grade closed at `.151.66 a kg at Bangkok and Malaysian SMR20 closed at `.129.02 a kg. On National Multi Commodity Exchange the last traded price for December 2016 futures was `.133.32 a kg, January 2017 at `.137.88, February at `.140.51 and March at `.142.93 a kg. Tokyo Commodity Exchange December 2016 futures series closed at ¥254 a kg, January 2017 at ¥255.3, February at ¥253.2, March at ¥255.3, April at ¥256 and the contract for delivery in May 2017 closed at ¥259.7 a kg. On Wednesday, most probably Tocom futures contract for delivery in May 2017 may trade in the range of ¥260 & ¥270 a kg.

To read Rubber4U – 15th December 2016 issue: http://rubber4u.com/Public/Abcd.pdf

For 2016-17 Rubber Forecast: http://rubber4u.com/Public/RForecast.pdf

Expectation to boost sentiments

Oil prices on Tuesday ended lower for the first time since OPEC agreed on 30th November, to cut output. Brent futures settled at US$53.93 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude settled at US$50.93 per barrel.

On Wednesday, Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will place Fifth Bi-monthly Monetary Policy Statement for 2016-17 on its website at 2.30 pm. Market will be keen to understand the RBI’s roadmap for currency management. Market expects 0.25% cut in repo rate, while sharp 0.50% cut in repo rate is expected to boost sentiments. Rubber4U estimates there won’t be any cut in repo rate.

The benchmark RSS4 grade rubber closed at `.129 a kg at Kottayam, while RSS3 grade closed at `.142.06 a kg at Bangkok and Malaysian SMR20 closed at `.119.20 a kg. On National Multi Commodity Exchange the last traded price for December 2016 futures was `.131.36 a kg, January 2017 at `.133.61, February at `.136.08 and March at `.139.59 a kg. Tokyo Commodity Exchange December 2016 futures series closed at ¥229.3 a kg, January 2017 at ¥231.2, February at ¥231.4, March at ¥233.7, April at ¥237.5 and the contract for delivery in May 2017 closed at ¥240.4 a kg. On Wednesday, most probably Tocom futures contract for delivery in May 2017 may trade in the range of ¥238 & ¥243 a kg.

To read Rubber4U – 15th December 2016 issue: http://rubber4u.com/Public/Abcd.pdf

For 2016-17 Rubber Forecast: http://rubber4u.com/Public/RForecast.pdf

TOCOM rubber hits 17 month high

Global crude oil prices are expected to remain volatile through the end of this year, following uncertainty over a production freeze by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Today oil futures rallied after Russian president Vladimir Putin said the country would freeze its oil output and he sees a high probability that an agreement to curb oil production will be reached at the  30th November meeting of OPEC in Vienna. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude futures for delivery in December was trading at $47.30 a barrel and January Brent crude at $47.85 a barrel at 17.45 IST.

According to market sources, China Petroleum and Chemical Corp. (Sinopec), raised its ex-works butadiene offers in eastern China to Yuan 12,300/mt, or $1,494/mt on an import parity basis. Sinopec's price hikes follow bullishness in synthetic rubber markets after natural rubber futures rose.

The April 2017 natural rubber futures contract traded on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange hitting a 17 month high of ¥224.4 a kg, after touching a low of ¥211.6 a kg a earlier in the day. The most-active rubber contract on the Shanghai futures exchange for January delivery SNRcv1 surged 965 yuan to finish at 17,130 yuan (about $2,484) per tonne, the highest since June 2015.

The benchmark RSS4 grade rubber closed at `.125 a kg at Kottayam, while RSS3 grade closed at `.131.25 a kg at Bangkok and Malaysian SMR20 closed at `.118.35 a kg. On National Multi Commodity Exchange the last traded price for December 2016 futures was `.132.99 a kg, January 2017 at `.135.29 and February at `.138.83 a kg. Tokyo Commodity Exchange November 2016 futures series closed at ¥214.8 a kg, December at ¥215.8, January 2017 at ¥220, February at ¥221, March at ¥221.7 and the contract for delivery in April 2017 closed at ¥224.1 a kg.

To read Rubber4U – 1st December 2016 issue: http://rubber4u.com/Public/Abcd.pdf

For 2016-17 Rubber Forecast: http://rubber4u.com/Public/RForecast.pdf

A positive outlook

Donald Trump has emerged as the 45th president of the United States of America. If Trump decides to implement his 15-point agenda, it could impact the India in several ways.

The UK manufacturing sector maintained a solid rate of expansion at the start of the final quarter of 2016, according to the latest CIPS Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). A major feature of the latest survey was the effect of the depreciation of the sterling exchange rate. Manufacturers reported that this aided efforts to increase inflows of new export business, resulting in new orders from the US, the European Union and China.

India is expected to push for a new approach to tariff cuts at the 16 country trade bloc to prevent China from flooding its market with cheap goods. The commerce department is working on ways to give minimum tariff concessions to Chinese goods and delay the concessions by a long number of years even as it allows imports from other member countries at lower duties.

International prices for natural rubber have climbed to a six-month high, with benchmark futures prices on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange up 40% from the recent low in August 2016. Today, Tocom contract for RSS3 rubber sheets for April 2017 delivery closed at ¥198.6 per kg. Synthetic rubber spot prices have been on an upward trend since August due to rising prices for the raw material butadiene, supporting push up the price of natural rubber. China is experiencing strong new car sales in the wake of cuts in vehicle taxes.

The Annual general body meeting of All Karnataka Rubber Planters Association (KRUPA) will be held at Jain Bhavan at Puttur-Karnataka on 11th November. The meeting will discuss and strive to mitigate woes of rubber growers' in Karnataka, which is going through a crisis with crash in price of natural rubber and also suffering from lack of support from the government. The association hopes that Rubber Board chairman - Ajith Kumar, who will inaugurate the conference will provide a vision and direction to the beleaguered rubber growers.

The benchmark RSS4 grade rubber closed at `.117.50 a kg at Kottayam, while RSS3 grade closed at `.120.40 a kg at Bangkok and Malaysian SMR20 closed at `.107.58 a kg. On National Multi Commodity Exchange November 2016 futures were trading at `.124.49 a kg, December at `.127.20, January 2017 at `.129.50 and February at `.132.31 a kg. Tokyo Commodity Exchange November 2016 futures series closed at ¥190.4 a kg, December at ¥192, January 2017 at ¥194.6, February at ¥195.4, March at ¥195.6 and the contract for delivery in April 2017 closed at ¥198.6 a kg.

To read Rubber4U – 15th November 2016 issue: http://rubber4u.com/Public/Abcd.pdf

For 2016-17 Rubber Forecast: http://rubber4u.com/Public/RForecast.pdf

NR & SR gains

On Tokyo Commodity Exchange, RSS3 grade natural rubber hit a five-month high, while synthetic rubber also climbed on the back of rising crude oil prices, WTI is currently trading at US$49.81 per barrel, while Brent is trading at US$51.93 per barrel. The RSS3 grade contract for March delivery rose to ¥175.3 a kg and settled at ¥173.7 per kg. Synthetic rubber also has been climbing in Asian markets as trader’s price in oil gains. Chinese demand for natural rubber remains strong, port inventories are substantial.

Under the ‘Pradhan Mantri Kausal Vikas Yojana’, the government of India has given approval for a scheme for the skill development in small rubber holders’ sector. The Rubber Board will implement the scheme with the active cooperation of National Skill Development Corporation and Rubber Skill Development Council.

The benchmark RSS4 grade rubber closed at `.116.50 a kg at Kottayam, while RSS3 grade closed at `.111.82 a kg at Bangkok and Malaysian SMR20 closed at `.98.02 a kg. On National Multi Commodity Exchange October 2016 futures closed at `.117.51 a kg, November at `.119.09, December at `.120.02 and January 2017 closed at `.120 a kg. Tokyo Commodity Exchange October 2016 futures series closed at ¥173.1 a kg, November at ¥172.7, December at ¥173, January 2017 at ¥173.9, February at ¥173.2 and the contract for delivery in March 2017 closed at ¥173.7 a kg.

To read Rubber4U – 15th October 2016 issue: http://rubber4u.com/Public/Abcd.pdf

For 2016-17 Rubber Forecast: http://rubber4u.com/Public/RForecast.pdf

Rubber Forecast 2016-17

Rubber4U Forecast 2016-17

Rubber4U

Rubber4U - 15th August 2016 issue

Rubber4U

Rubber4U - 1st August 2016 issue

Rubber4U

Rubber4U - 15th July 2016 issue

Rubber4U

Rubber4U - 1st July 2016 issue

Rubber4U

Rubber4U - 15th June 2016 issue

Tocom hits 4 month low & import decreased by 6.51%

TOCOM rubber futures slid to a fresh 4 month low due to weaker oil prices and fears about slower demand in China. The Tokyo Commodity Exchange rubber contract for November delivery closed at ¥148 a kg was down by ¥2.8 per kg, after touching a low of ¥147.5 per kg, the lowest since 15th February 2016.

Oil prices have rallied by around 90% since hitting decade-lows earlier this year. Today, U.S oil futures prices fell below $50 a barre, dragged down by an appreciating U.S dollar sparked profit-taking and negative sentiment across financial markets.

The Indian natural rubber production for the month of April 2016 decreased by 2.5% to 39,000 tonnes compared to 40,000 tonnes during April 2015. While consumption during April 2016 increased by 5.18% to 85,000 tonnes, from 80,815 tonnes during April 2015. Natural rubber import decreased by 6.51% to 34,550 tonnes compared to 36,957 tonnes during April 2015. The natural rubber stock decreased by 11.98% to 213,000 tonnes compared to 242,000 tonnes during April 2015.

The benchmark RSS4 grade rubber closed at `.133.50 a kg at Kottayam, while RSS3 grade closed at `.100.63 a kg at Bangkok and Malaysian SMR20 closed at `.81.68 a kg. On National Multi Commodity Exchange June 2016, the futures closed at `.131.22 a kg, July at `.131.21, August at `.130.13 and September 2016 closed at `.129.61 a kg. Tokyo Commodity Exchange June 2016 futures series closed at ¥150.9 a kg, July at ¥150.9, August at ¥149.5, September at ¥148.6, October at ¥148.5 and the contract for delivery in November 2016 closed at ¥148 a kg.

To read Rubber4U – 15th June 2016 issue: http://rubber4u.com/Public/Abcd.pdf

For 2015-16 Rubber Forecast: http://rubber4u.com/Public/RForecast.pdf

Rubber4U

Rubber4U - 1st June 2016 Issue

Rubber4U

Rubber4U - 15th May 2016 issue

Soft launch for new market

The International Tripartite Rubber Council (ITRC) said ITRC members Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia have announced the soft launch of a regional rubber market (RRM). The trade platform is anticipated to be operational by June 2016. They had selected potential sellers to trade on the platform and will next invite buyers to register and trade on the platform, said ITRC’s operational arm, the International Rubber Consortium (IRCo).

It was reported by the International Rubber Study Group that global natural rubbber stock in September 2015 was 2.8 million tonnes compared with 3.2 million tonnes in 2014.

U.S. oil futures moved lower on Friday, as renewed concerns over a global supply glut and a stronger U.S. dollar weighed. U.S crude futures for June delivery were down 1.13% at $46.17 a barrel.

Russian company, Omsk Carbon Group (OCG) is increasing prices for its carbon black products with effect from 1st June.

The benchmark RSS4 grade rubber closed at `.129 a kg at Kottayam, while RSS3 grade closed at `.118.63 a kg at Bangkok and Malaysian SMR20 closed at `.94.07 a kg. On National Multi Commodity Exchange May 2016, the futures closed at `.129.67 a kg, June at `.125.46, July at `.125.68 and August 2016 closed at `.125.68 a kg. Tokyo Commodity Exchange May 2016 futures series closed at ¥164 a kg, June at ¥168.4, July at ¥169.9, August at ¥170.1, September at ¥171.4 and the contract for delivery in October 2016 closed at ¥173.1 a kg.

To read Rubber4U – 15th May 2016 issue: http://rubber4u.com/Public/Abcd.pdf

For 2015-16 Rubber Forecast: http://rubber4u.com/Public/RForecast.pdf

Measures to control crisis

The inadequate allocation of funds to the Rubber Board of India would have a cascading effect on the activities and functioning of crucial departments like production, research and extension. The increasing concerns over the decline in natural rubber production, the Parliamentary panel has called upon the Finance Ministry to allocate adequate funds to carry out re-plantations optimally.

According to the China’s Ministry of Commerce statement, it will start an anti-dumping review on chloroprene rubber imported from Japan, United States and European Union from 10th May 2016. The review, which will last till 9th May 2017, the anti-dumping measures will continue to be effective during the review.

The benchmark RSS4 grade rubber closed at `.135 a kg at Kottayam, while Malaysian SMR20 closed at `.96.28 a kg. On National Multi Commodity Exchange May 2016, the futures closed at `.134.57 a kg, June at `.136.55, July at `.137.28 and August 2016 closed at `.137.30 a kg. Tokyo Commodity Exchange May 2016 futures series closed at ¥175.5 a kg, June at ¥176.5, July at ¥178.2, August at ¥177.8, September at ¥178.9 and the contract for delivery in October 2016 closed at ¥180.7 a kg. On Tuesday, most probably Tocom futures contract for delivery in October 2016 may trade in the positive range of ¥178 & ¥184 a kg.

To read Rubber4U – 15th May 2016 issue: http://rubber4u.com/Public/Abcd.pdf

For 2015-16 Rubber Forecast: http://rubber4u.com/Public/RForecast.pdf

Recovery washed out

Soft domestic demand and slowdown in new business from overseas markets were said to be behind the sluggish performance for UK manufacturers in April 2016. While in the first quarter of 2016 Indonesia's manufacturing activity declined 1.34% from the fourth quarter of 2015 according to data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS). This decline is primarily caused by weaker growth of the processed tobacco industry (-9.99%), rubber & plastic industry (-7.66%), paper & paper products industry (-5.73%), the motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers industry (-4.54%) and electrical equipment (-4.13%).

Tokyo prices had climbed to a nine-month high amid hopes for improved demand from China and on speculation that dry weather across Southeast Asia could reduce rubber output. But on 2nd May, benchmark Tokyo Commodity Exchange rubber futures fell to their lowest in nearly two weeks, as the yen soared to an 18 month high versus the dollar. The Tocom rubber contract for October delivery fell 3.7% to close at ¥187.3 per kg, the lowest since 19th April.

Vietnam's natural rubber exports this year could drop 12% compared to 2015, to a six-year low at around 1 million tonnes, as part of the country's commitment to curb supplies and help stabilise prices, an industry official said on Thursday.

The benchmark RSS4 grade rubber closed at `.137 a kg at Kottayam, while RSS3 grade closed at `.119.72 a kg at Bangkok and Malaysian SMR20 closed at `.98.72 a kg. On National Multi Commodity Exchange May 2016, the futures closed at `.132.42 a kg, June at `.134.44 and July 2016 closed at `.135.40 a kg. Tokyo Commodity Exchange May 2016 futures series closed at ¥182 a kg, June at ¥182.7, July at ¥184, August at ¥184.1, September at ¥185.5 and the contract for delivery in October 2016 closed at ¥187.3 a kg.

To read Rubber4U – 1st May 2016 issue: http://rubber4u.com/Public/Abcd.pdf

For 2015-16 Rubber Forecast: http://rubber4u.com/Public/RForecast.pdf

Rubber4U

Rubber4U - 1st May 2016 Issue

Everything down, except import for 2015-16

For More Details: http://rubber4u.com/Public/Facts2015-16.pdf

At last, ahead of polls

Growers were facing an unprecedented crisis due to a steady decline in natural rubber prices and also the production. The un-remunerative prices have forced farmers to stop harvesting the crop and even abandon tapping. The growers complain that the Rubber Board, which is looked upon as a source of support, is hardly taking any efforts for their benefit. At last the Appointments Committee of Cabinet has approved the appointment of Senior IAS officer A Ajith Kumar, a 1994 batch IAS officer of Kerala cadre, to the post of chairman of Rubber Board of India, Kottayam. He has been appointed for a period up to 31st May 2018, which is the date of his superannuation. The post has been lying vacant since August 2014.

The benchmark RSS4 grade rubber closed at `.133 a kg at Kottayam, while RSS3 grade closed at `.114.61 a kg at Bangkok and Malaysian SMR20 closed at `.101.40 a kg. On National Multi Commodity Exchange May 2016, the futures closed at `.137.02 a kg, June at `.137.22 and July 2016 closed at `.137.58 a kg. Tokyo Commodity Exchange April 2016 futures series closed at ¥188.5 a kg, May 2016 at ¥185.3, June at ¥187, July at ¥187.8, August at ¥188.4 and the contract for delivery in September 2016 closed at ¥189.9 a kg. On Wednesday, most probably Tocom futures contract for delivery in September 2016 may trade in the positive range of ¥190 & ¥199 a kg.

To read Rubber4U – 1st May 2016 issue: http://rubber4u.com/Public/Abcd.pdf

For 2015-16 Rubber Forecast: http://rubber4u.com/Public/RForecast.pdf

Rubber4U

Rubber4U - 15th April 2016 issue

Rubber4U

Rubber4U - 1st April 2016 Issue

Encouraging factors push up prices

The natural rubber futures are gaining here on price-supporting measures by producing countries, with the August contract for a benchmark product trading at a seven-month high on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange.

The most actively traded September contract closed at ¥180.5 per kg, higher than the recent low in early February. Prices are also climbing because many producing countries are entering the dry season; output is expected to drop about 20% till May. The price of crude oil, which is used to make synthetic rubber, is on the rise. Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia plans to cut total exports by 615,000 tonnes over the six months starting in March will also help in pushing up prices. Recently, Indonesian government announced that it will buy 500,000 tonnes of natural rubber.

The benchmark RSS4 grade rubber closed at `.114 a kg at Kottayam, while RSS3 grade closed at `.101 a kg at Bangkok and Malaysian SMR20 closed at `.89.13 a kg. On National Multi Commodity Exchange April 2016, the futures closed at `.117.66 a kg, May at `.119.01 and June 2016 closed at `.120.39 a kg. Tokyo Commodity Exchange April 2016 futures series closed at ¥170.7 a kg, May 2016 at ¥172.1, June at ¥174.8, July at ¥177.5, August at ¥179.3 and the contract for delivery in September 2016 closed at ¥180.5 a kg. On Tuesay, most probably Tocom futures contract for delivery in September 2016 may trade in the range of ¥182 & ¥176 a kg.

To read Rubber4U – 1st April 2016 issue: http://rubber4u.com/Public/Abcd.pdf

For 2015-16 Rubber Forecast: http://rubber4u.com/Public/RForecast.pdf

Initiative by Indonesia

At the launch of a replanting program the Indonesian government said government agencies and state owned companies will buy 500,000 tonnes of locally produced rubber to help support rubber prices. The government gave no details on the timing of the purchases. The government would provide subsidised loans to farmers to replant 1 million hectares of rubber plantation between 2016 and 2019.

The benchmark RSS4 grade rubber closed at `.113 a kg at Kottayam, while RSS3 grade closed at `.101.36 a kg at Bangkok and Malaysian SMR20 closed at `.87.19 a kg. On National Multi Commodity Exchange April 2016, the futures closed at `.116.61 a kg, May at `.118.39 and June 2016 closed at `.119.33 a kg. Tokyo Commodity Exchange March 2016 futures series closed at ¥167 a kg, April at ¥166, May 2016 at ¥168.4, June at ¥170, July at ¥173 and the contract for delivery in August 2016 closed at ¥175.3 a kg.

To read Rubber4U – 1st April 2016 issue: http://rubber4u.com/Public/Abcd.pdf

For 2015-16 Rubber Forecast: http://rubber4u.com/Public/RForecast.pdf

Rubber4U

Rubber4U - 15th March 2016 issue

Market linked insurance for plantation

Indian government is likely to initiate a market linked insurance scheme for plantation crops, which will be implemented on a pilot basis in 7 districts and will provide insurance cover against fluctuation in prices and yield. The revenue insurance scheme for plantation crops will be launched once the operational parameters are finalised by the government. The scheme will be funded from the price stabilisation fund for plantation crops.

While addressing at the India Rubber Meet 2016 in Goa, the event organised by the Rubber Board in partnership with stakeholder associations in rubber and related sectors, the Rubber Board chairman, A Jayathilak said excessive import of rubber products including tyres, often on account of dumping and tariff concessions offered under Free Trade Agreements (FTAs), is a critical issue. Rubber is one of the most critical, strategic and versatile raw materials in the modern world and will remain so the in the foreseeable future. Its demand and prices are positively linked to economic growth. Link between the industry and economic growth brings in fortunes during booms and hardships during busts.

According to Rubber4U estimate, domestic industry will have to face volatile situations. Currently, when the crude oil is trading at its recent low level, petrol price has not come down comparatively, due to increase in taxes. At this juncture auto sector is struggling to sustain. Think when these prices start shooting up; inflation will increase, sales quantity will decrease, so the raw material demands. But natural rubber price is expected to move to a level of `.150 a kg. As we have earlier forecasted that natural rubber price will touch `.92 a kg level, this too is also expected to happen.

The benchmark RSS4 grade rubber closed at `.107 a kg at Kottayam, while RSS3 grade closed at `.98.55 a kg at Bangkok and Malaysian SMR20 closed at `.87.30 a kg. On National Multi Commodity Exchange March 2016, the futures closed at `.105.17 a kg, April at `.108.22, May at `.110.36 and June 2016 closed at `.111.41 a kg. Tokyo Commodity Exchange March 2016 futures series closed at ¥160.4 a kg, April at ¥164, May 2016 at ¥166.7, June at ¥168.4, July at ¥170.1 and the contract for delivery in August 2016 closed at ¥171.4 a kg. On Friday, most probably Tocom futures contract for delivery in August 2016 may trade in the range of ¥174 & ¥168 a kg.

To read Rubber4U – 15th March 2016 issue: http://rubber4u.com/Public/Abcd.pdf

For 2015-16 Rubber Forecast: http://rubber4u.com/Public/RForecast.pdf

Rubber4U

Rubber4U - 1st March 2016 issue

Lots of expectations, will it get fulfilled?

Union Budget 2016-17 will be presented on 29th February and industry expects to see a blueprint that would strengthen the demand scenario and would be focused on pushing the Indian economy to the targeted GDP growth. Finance minister Arun Jaitley faces a tough task of balancing the needs of farm sector as well as the industry when he presents his third Budget. On the tax front, the Budget may continue with the status quo, while it may tinker with the exemptions.

While the fortune of the Indian tyre industry is knotted with the performance of the automotive sector. With economic activity gathering pace and the RBI ushering in monetary easing, it could boost consumer sentiment. The domestic production of natural rubber is insufficient to meet the growing demand; import dependence will remain for quite some time, as the gap is widening. But it should not be at the cost of hurting domestic business, especially when the industry is going through a manufacturing slump. Demand for tyres is expected to accelerate in 2016-17. Industry expects this budget to help boost demand and keep the industry momentum going.

The Association of Planters of Kerala wanted amendments in the Plantation Labour Act, which mandates the provision of housing, sanitation and medical care facilities to workers. While Indian Rubber Dealers Federation has urged the Centre to enhance the replanting subsidy to `.1 lakh per hectare from the present `.20,000. Growers seek a temporary ban on imports till a safeguard duty is levied.

Automotive Tyre Manufacturers Association (ATMA) said the existing curbs on natural rubber import are restricting them from sourcing the raw material at competitive prices at a time when domestic output is declining sharply. In view of such steep fall in natural rubber production, imports are a must to meet the growing demand of tyres from auto and transport sectors. High import duties on natural rubber and much lower duties on finished tyres is leading to indiscriminate surge in import and dumping of tyres in India.

Don’t expect much on Monday.

The benchmark RSS4 grade rubber closed at `.96.50 a kg at Kottayam, while RSS3 grade closed at `.89.42 a kg at Bangkok and Malaysian SMR20 closed at `.78.03 a kg. On National Multi Commodity Exchange March 2016, the futures closed at `.98.53 a kg, April at `.101.94 and May 2016 closed at `.103.90 a kg. Tokyo Commodity Exchange March 2016 futures series closed at ¥147.4 a kg, April at ¥149.5, May 2016 at ¥152.3, June at ¥153.9, July at ¥155.2 and the contract for delivery in August 2016 closed at ¥155.6 a kg. On Monday, most probably Tocom futures contract for delivery in August 2016 may trade in negative range of ¥153 & ¥158 a kg.

To read Rubber4U – 1st March 2016 issue: http://rubber4u.com/Public/Abcd.pdf

For 2015-16 Rubber Forecast: http://rubber4u.com/Public/RForecast.pdf

NR production down, while import increased

India’s natural rubber production for the month of January 2016 decreased by 3.45% to 56,000 tonnes compared to 58,000 tonnes during January 2015. While the consumption during the month decreased by 2.21% to 82,000 tonnes compared to 83,850 tonnes during the same period of 2015. Natural rubber stock decreased by 2.42% to 242,000 tonnes from 248,000 tonnes in January 2015.

Natural rubber imports in January 2016 increased 20.70% to 35,174 tonnes from 29,141 tonnes in January 2015. Import of natural rubber was mainly from Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam and Malaysia.

The benchmark RSS4 grade rubber closed at `.94.50 a kg at Kottayam, while RSS3 grade closed at `.87.62 a kg at Bangkok and Malaysian SMR20 closed at `.75.24 a kg. On National Multi Commodity Exchange March 2016, the futures closed at `.97.39 a kg, April at `.100.40 and May 2016 closed at `.102.72 a kg. Tokyo Commodity Exchange February 2016 futures series closed at ¥141 a kg, March at ¥144.4, April at ¥147.3, May 2016 at ¥150.6, June at ¥152.7 and the contract for delivery in July 2016 closed at ¥153.2 a kg.

To read Rubber4U – 1st March 2016 issue: http://rubber4u.com/Public/Abcd.pdf

For 2015-16 Rubber Forecast: http://rubber4u.com/Public/RForecast.pdf

Market to remain weak

Automotive Tyre Manufacturers' Association (ATMA) the most active industry bodies representing `.50,000 crore automotive tyre industry has elected K M Mammen, chairman & managing director of MRF Ltd. as Chairman of ATMA. While Satish Sharma, president (Asia Pacific, Middle East and Africa) of Apollo Tyres Ltd. has been elected as Vice Chairman.

The moves by major natural rubber exporters to limit shipments could assist in the near-term, but a significant price movement in the coming months is not expected. The rubber market will continue to struggle with an overhang of stocks, encouraged by economic slowdown in China and weak oil prices which enhance the competitiveness of synthetic rubber. The negative economic sentiment and low petroleum prices will not support an increase in natural rubber demand.

The benchmark RSS4 grade rubber closed at `.94 a kg at Kottayam, while RSS3 grade closed at `.87.55 a kg at Bangkok and Malaysian SMR20 closed at `.75.14 a kg. On National Multi Commodity Exchange February 2016, the futures closed at `.198.02 a kg, March at `.101.13, April at `.102.43 and May 2016 at `.104.07 a kg. Tokyo Commodity Exchange February 2016 futures series closed at ¥142.6 a kg, March at ¥144.6, April at ¥147.6, May 2016 at ¥150.6, June at ¥152.4 and the contract for delivery in July 2016 closed at ¥152.6 a kg.

To read Rubber4U – 1st March 2016 issue: http://rubber4u.com/Public/Abcd.pdf

For 2015-16 Rubber Forecast: http://rubber4u.com/Public/RForecast.pdf

Rubber4U

Rubber4U - 15th February 2016 issue

Future outlook

Rubber Skill Development Council (RSDC) and Tripura University has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) for conducting a programme called Bachelor of Vocation (B.Voc) in Rubber Technology. The three year course is approved by the University Grants Commission under the Ministry of Human Resource Development. The MoU was signed by Vinod T Simon, chairman of RSDC, and O S Adhikari, registrar of Tripura University.

A fourteen member delegation led by Mohinder Gupta, president of All India Rubber Industries Association, supported by the MSME ministry, is visiting Japan during 8-12 February 2016 for exploring trade and investment opportunities in rubber sector. Both the countries are among the world’s largest producers of rubber and rubber products.

The benchmark RSS4 grade rubber closed at `.91.50 a kg at Kottayam, while RSS3 grade closed at `.85.73 a kg at Bangkok and Malaysian SMR20 closed at `.75.48 a kg. On National Multi Commodity Exchange February 2016 futures closed at `.91.66 a kg, March at `.93.76, April at `.96.04 and May closed at `.97.73 a kg. On Tokyo Commodity Exchange, February 2016 futures series closed at ¥152 a kg, March at ¥150.5, April at ¥152.9, May at ¥156, June at ¥157.2 and the contract for delivery in July 2016 closed at ¥157.3 a kg. On Friday, most probably Tocom futures contract for delivery in July 2016 may trade in negative range of ¥153 & ¥156 a kg.

To read Rubber4U – 15th February 2016 issue: http://rubber4u.com/Public/Abcd.pdf

For 2015-16 Rubber Forecast: http://rubber4u.com/Public/RForecast.pdf

Peaceful hartal

LDF has called for a hartal in Kottayam district demanding measures to be taken to save the rubber farmers. LDF activists took out protest marches in many places in the district. The dawn to dusk hartal was peaceful but partial. While buses remained off the road and shops remained closed, private vehicles could be seen in large numbers on the road.

The benchmark RSS4 grade rubber closed at `.92 a kg at Cochin, while RSS3 grade closed at `.85.14 a kg at Bangkok and Malaysian SMR20 closed at `.73.60 a kg. On National Multi Commodity Exchange February 2016 futures closed at `.91.05 a kg, March at `.93.03, April at `.95.34 and May closed at `.99.50 a kg. On Tokyo Commodity Exchange, February 2016 futures series closed at ¥148.7 a kg, March at ¥149, April at ¥150.5, May at ¥153.5, June at ¥154.1 and the contract for delivery in July 2016 closed at ¥153.6 a kg. On Thursday, most probably Tocom futures contract for delivery in July 2016 may trade in the range of ¥153 & ¥160 a kg.

To read Rubber4U – 1st February 2016 issue: http://rubber4u.com/Public/Abcd.pdf

For 2015-16 Rubber Forecast: http://rubber4u.com/Public/RForecast.pdf

Rubber4U

Rubber4U - 1st February 2016 issue

Investigation initiated & restriction applied

With an aim to protect domestic players, India has initiated a probe into alleged dumping of 'Styrene Butadiene Rubber (SBR) of 1,500 series and 1,700 series' used for leather goods by the EU, South Korea and Thailand following complaints from Reliance Industries and Indian Synthetic Rubber.

Kerala Congress (M) leader Jose K. Mani, MP, who is on an indefinite fast demanding immediate intervention of the Centre to find a lasting solution to the crisis in the natural rubber sector and has called for imposing more tax on synthetic rubber. In a statement Jose K. Mani said that synthetic rubber attracted an import duty of just 10%, against the 25% by natural rubber. It is only natural, that synthetic rubber should at least attract an import duty on par with that of natural rubber.

With an aim to discourage cheap imports of natural rubber, government allowed inbound shipments of the commodity through only two sea ports of Chennai and Nhava Sheva (Jawaharlal Nehru Port).

Thailand government will call for a meeting with related agencies, including the Finance Ministry, Bureau of the Budget, and Council of State to discuss the Bt4.5 billion budget allocated to purchase 100,000 tonnes of rubber at Bt45 per kg. Agriculture Minister General Chatchai Sarikalya said the Cabinet approved the measure proposed by the Ministry to use the budget to buy rubber directly from farmers. The purchase would be conducted from 25th January onwards.

The benchmark RSS4 grade rubber closed at `.96 a kg at Kottayam, while RSS3 grade closed at `.87.33 a kg at Bangkok and Malaysian SMR20 closed at `.73.88 a kg. On National Multi Commodity Exchange February 2016 futures closed at `.96.90 a kg, March at `.98.89 and April closed at `.101.67 a kg. On Tokyo Commodity Exchange, January 2016 futures series closed at ¥146.3 a kg, February at ¥146.8, March at ¥149.9, April at ¥152.4, May at ¥155.3 and the contract for delivery in June 2016 closed at ¥156.7 a kg. On Thursday, most probably Tocom futures contract for delivery in June 2016 may trade in the range of ¥154 & ¥159 a kg.

To read Rubber4U – 1st February 2016 issue: http://rubber4u.com/Public/Abcd.pdf

For 2015-16 Rubber Forecast: http://rubber4u.com/Public/RForecast.pdf