Rubber4U

Rubber4U - 1st February 2016 issue

Investigation initiated & restriction applied

With an aim to protect domestic players, India has initiated a probe into alleged dumping of 'Styrene Butadiene Rubber (SBR) of 1,500 series and 1,700 series' used for leather goods by the EU, South Korea and Thailand following complaints from Reliance Industries and Indian Synthetic Rubber.

Kerala Congress (M) leader Jose K. Mani, MP, who is on an indefinite fast demanding immediate intervention of the Centre to find a lasting solution to the crisis in the natural rubber sector and has called for imposing more tax on synthetic rubber. In a statement Jose K. Mani said that synthetic rubber attracted an import duty of just 10%, against the 25% by natural rubber. It is only natural, that synthetic rubber should at least attract an import duty on par with that of natural rubber.

With an aim to discourage cheap imports of natural rubber, government allowed inbound shipments of the commodity through only two sea ports of Chennai and Nhava Sheva (Jawaharlal Nehru Port).

Thailand government will call for a meeting with related agencies, including the Finance Ministry, Bureau of the Budget, and Council of State to discuss the Bt4.5 billion budget allocated to purchase 100,000 tonnes of rubber at Bt45 per kg. Agriculture Minister General Chatchai Sarikalya said the Cabinet approved the measure proposed by the Ministry to use the budget to buy rubber directly from farmers. The purchase would be conducted from 25th January onwards.

The benchmark RSS4 grade rubber closed at `.96 a kg at Kottayam, while RSS3 grade closed at `.87.33 a kg at Bangkok and Malaysian SMR20 closed at `.73.88 a kg. On National Multi Commodity Exchange February 2016 futures closed at `.96.90 a kg, March at `.98.89 and April closed at `.101.67 a kg. On Tokyo Commodity Exchange, January 2016 futures series closed at ¥146.3 a kg, February at ¥146.8, March at ¥149.9, April at ¥152.4, May at ¥155.3 and the contract for delivery in June 2016 closed at ¥156.7 a kg. On Thursday, most probably Tocom futures contract for delivery in June 2016 may trade in the range of ¥154 & ¥159 a kg.

To read Rubber4U – 1st February 2016 issue: http://rubber4u.com/Public/Abcd.pdf

For 2015-16 Rubber Forecast: http://rubber4u.com/Public/RForecast.pdf

Demand for protective duty

The steep fall in prices of natural rubber from `.240 per kilo gram to `.96 per kg has affected around 12 lakh small scale farmers in Kerala. Kerala Congress (M) leader Jose K. Mani, MP, launched an indefinite fast demanding immediate intervention of the Centre to find a lasting solution to the crisis in the natural rubber sector. In his address, K.M. Mani came down heavily on the Central government, which, in spite of repeated demands made by the State, had not taken any effective steps to bring the price line back to normal. So he demanded the Centre to implement the protective duty as per the 19th section of World Trade Agreement for rubber. 

The benchmark RSS4 grade rubber closed at `.97 a kg at Kottayam, while RSS3 grade closed at `.86.72 a kg at Bangkok and Malaysian SMR20 closed at `.72.62 a kg. On National Multi Commodity Exchange January 2016 futures closed at `.98.30 a kg, February at `.99.91 and March closed at `.102.59 a kg. On Tokyo Commodity Exchange, January 2016 futures series closed at ¥145.3 a kg, February at ¥147.5, March at ¥151.1, April at ¥153.7, May at ¥156 and the contract for delivery in June 2016 closed at ¥157.4 a kg. On Tuesday, most probably Tocom futures contract for delivery in June 2016 may trade in the range of ¥156 & ¥161 a kg.

To read Rubber4U – 15th January 2016 issue: http://rubber4u.com/Public/Abcd.pdf

For 2015-16 Rubber Forecast: http://rubber4u.com/Public/RForecast.pdf

Economy struggling, don’t expect much

On 16th January, Crude oil settled at US$30.39 per barrel after dipping to US$29.19 per barrel on 15th January for the first time since December 2003.

After years of impressive growth, Thailand's economy is struggling. Earlier this month, World Bank forecast that Thailand's gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate would slip from 2.5% in 2015 to just 2% this year. While National Farmers' Council (NFC) of Thailand estimates the production cost of rubber sheets at around Bt60 per kg and had proposed that the government buy latex at Bt55-Bt56 per kg and rubber sheets at Bt60 per kg. While Prawit, who chaired the committee's first meeting said, this price of Bt45 per kilo for rubber sheets is agreed upon by all sides concerned. The government has enough budget to fund the measure so do not worry about its funding. Interior Minister General Anupong Paochinda said the government would most likely begin to buy the rubber sheets in 14 southern provinces first as they were suffering the most. Rubber Authority of Thailand had agreed to buy 100,000 tonnes of all type of rubber products directly from 2,000 farmers in the South and 1,000 farmers in the northern and northeastern regions. The government has put the limit of 150 kg that each rubber farmer will be able to sell to the government and rubber purchases will kick off on 25th January and had decided to set up 3,000 purchasing points across the country to buy rubber from farmers.

The benchmark RSS4 grade rubber closed at `.97 a kg at Kottayam, while RSS3 grade closed at `.86.29 a kg at Bangkok and Malaysian SMR20 closed at `.73.17 a kg. On National Multi Commodity Exchange January 2016 futures closed at `.97.42 a kg, February at `.97.83, March at `.99.03 and April closed at `.102.13 a kg. On Tokyo Commodity Exchange, January 2016 futures series closed at ¥145.6 a kg, February at ¥148.7, March at ¥151.5, April at ¥154.3, May at ¥156.7 and the contract for delivery in June 2016 closed at ¥157.7 a kg. On Monday, most probably Tocom futures contract for delivery in June 2016 may trade in the range of ¥152 & ¥160 a kg.

To read Rubber4U – 15th January 2016 issue: http://rubber4u.com/Public/Abcd.pdf

For 2015-16 Rubber Forecast: http://rubber4u.com/Public/RForecast.pdf

Rubber4U

Rubber4U - 15th January 2016 issue

Rubber at seven year low

Due to slowing manufacturing in China and U.S, rubber tumbled to the lowest since 2009, raising concern about the decelerating global growth and worsening a glut of natural rubber. On the Tokyo Commodity Exchange, futures for June delivery fell to ¥150.6 a kg, the lowest settlement for a most active contract since March 2009. The natural rubber prices are further expected to fall as a global glut is forecast to widen amid softening demand.

Stockpiles on the Shanghai Futures Exchange at the end of 2015 totaled 249,307 tonnes, the largest since at least January 2003, according to the exchange. According to the China Rubber Industry Association secretary general Mary Xu, China’s auto industry is likely to grow at an annual pace of 3.7% in the five years to 2020 compared with a rate of 6.9% in 2014.

The benchmark RSS4 grade rubber closed at `.101 a kg at Kottayam, while RSS3 grade closed at `.78.11 a kg at Bangkok and Malaysian SMR20 closed at `.73.14 a kg. On National Multi Commodity Exchange January 2016 futures closed at `.99.98 a kg, February at `.100.11 and March closed at `.101.80 a kg. On Tokyo Commodity Exchange, January 2016 futures series closed at ¥137.3 a kg, February at ¥139.7, March at ¥144.1, April at ¥147.1, May at ¥149.3 and the contract for delivery in June 2016 closed at ¥150.6 a kg. On Wednesday, most probably Tocom futures contract for delivery in June 2016 may trade in the range of ¥145.5 & ¥151 a kg.

To read Rubber4U – 15th January 2016 issue: http://rubber4u.com/Public/Abcd.pdf

For 2015-16 Rubber Forecast: http://rubber4u.com/Public/RForecast.pdf