Government will try to address rural distress

The Indian Union Budget 2019 will be presented on 1st February. If Finance Minister chooses to present a full Budget instead of an interim one, he can well announce some radical reforms without worrying about their popular reception. At the 1st February budget, the sixth by this government and final one before the general elections, is likely to include some tax sops for the middle class and also unveil measures to lessen rural stress. A farm package has been in the works with various options including income transfer, a more liberal minimum support price scheme and interest waivers for crop loans repaid on time. Last year finance minister began after 11 am and it was close to two hour long speech. Budget session 2019 will commence from 31st January and will end on 13th February.

The oil market fell as a widespread economic slowdown, which may dent growth in demand. International Brent crude oil futures closed at $61.64 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures closed at $53.69 per barrel. Oil prices fell as financial markets reeled from concerns about a global economic slowdown. Rising oil output from the United States, together with the effects of the U.S-China trade war were weighing on crude prices. These bearish market factors offset several bullish influences from around the world, including production cuts led by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and declining output from Iran and Venezuela.

The benchmark RSS4 grade rubber closed at `.124.50 a kg at Kottayam, while RSS3 grade closed at `.113.37 a kg at Bangkok and Malaysian SMR20 closed at `.95.59 a kg. On ICEX, February 2019, the futures closed at `.123.94 a kg, March at `.125.83, April at `.128.07, May at `.126.91, June at `.128.17 and July closed at `.129.45 a kg. Tokyo Commodity Exchange January 2019 futures series closed at ¥199.5 a kg, February at ¥199.5, March at ¥189.6, April at ¥186.2, May at ¥184.3 and the contract for delivery in June 2019 closed at ¥182.8 a kg. On Monday, most probably Tocom futures contract for delivery in June 2019 may trade in the range of ¥180 & ¥184 a kg.

To read Rubber4U – 1st February 2019 issue: http://rubber4u.com/Public/Abcd.pdf

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For 2018-19 Rubber Forecast: http://rubber4u.com/Public/RForecast.pdf

OPTIMA - 6

India Rubber Expo 2019

Hoping for the best

Union Minister for Commerce and Industry, Suresh Prabhu inaugurated three day event - India Rubber Expo 2019 at Bombay Exhibition Centre, Mumbai, India. Union Commerce Minister Suresh Prabhu said rubber industry is a truly homegrown industry which is having a deep impact on several global markets. Rubber industry will continue to grow faster, create more employment opportunities, increase exports and add to the economic output of India. Rubber industry can also contribute significantly in India’s efforts to become a 5 trillion dollar economy.

According to Oke Nurwan, director general of foreign trade at Indonesia’s Trade Ministry, a technical team at the International Tripartite Rubber Council has proposed cutting shipments of natural rubber by 300,000 tonnes this year as part of efforts to improve prices. Indonesian and Malaysian governments have agreed on proposal for combined cut, while Thailand so far hasn’t. Officials from the three countries were due to gather in Bangkok during 19-20 January.

The benchmark RSS4 grade rubber closed at `.125 a kg at Kottayam, while RSS3 grade closed at `.113.37 a kg at Bangkok and Malaysian SMR20 closed at `.96.17 a kg. On ICEX, February 2019, the futures closed at `.126.16 a kg, March at `.128.39, April at `.125.64, May at `.126.91, June at `.128.17 and July closed at `.129.45 a kg. Tokyo Commodity Exchange January 2019 futures series closed at ¥190 a kg, February at ¥187.3, March at ¥186, April at ¥185.5, May at ¥185 and the contract for delivery in June 2019 closed at ¥184.8 a kg. On Friday, most probably Tocom futures contract for delivery in June 2019 may trade in the range of ¥183 & ¥186 a kg.

To read Rubber4U – 1st February 2019 issue: http://rubber4u.com/Public/Abcd.pdf

For 2018-19 Rubber Forecast: http://rubber4u.com/Public/RForecast.pdf

Worries over economic slowdown

Oil prices slipped on concerns over economic growth after talks fell short of offering concrete steps to end the Sino-U.S trade war, although OPEC led production cuts bolstered sentiment in crude markets. Oil prices were also supported by comments from U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Thursday that the central bank had the ability to be patient on monetary policy. Brent crude futures closed at $60.48 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude closed at $51.59 a barrel.

Kerala rubber growers have decided to form a company to venture into manufacturing value added products as demand has fallen for locally produced natural rubber. While International Tripartite Rubber Council will be meeting in Bangkok on 19th and 20th January 2019 to find ways to boost rubber demand.

Benchmark Tokyo rubber future ended slightly higher after surging to a nearly 7 month high, supported by hopes that U.S-Sino talks may resolve a trade war and on some fears that Thailand’s storm last week may have affected rubber output.

The benchmark RSS4 grade rubber closed at `.125 a kg at Kottayam, while RSS3 grade closed at `.110.57 a kg at Bangkok and Malaysian SMR20 closed at `.97.27 a kg. On ICEX, January 2019, the futures closed at `.125.99 a kg, February at `.127.99, March at `.130.05, April at `.125.64, May at `.126.91 and June closed at `.128.17 a kg. Tokyo Commodity Exchange January 2019 futures series closed at ¥187.8 a kg, February at ¥184.7, March at ¥184.8, April at ¥184.8, May at ¥184.2 and the contract for delivery in June 2019 closed at ¥183.5 a kg.

To read Rubber4U – 15th January 2019 issue: http://rubber4u.com/Public/Abcd.pdf

For 2018-19 Rubber Forecast: http://rubber4u.com/Public/RForecast.pdf

Sentiment remains bearish

Oil prices rose on hopes that US-Chinese talks in Beijing would bring a halt to trade disputes between the world's biggest economies, while OPEC led supply cuts tightened markets. International Brent crude futures were at $57.77 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures were at $48.85 per barrel.

The Indian rupee plunged by 53 paise to close at 70.21 against the US dollar amid renewed concerns over widening of current account deficit following constant rise in global crude oil prices.

Western India’s automotive exhibition ‘Pune Auto Expo’ will be inaugurated by Maharashtra chief minister Devendra Fadnavis at Ganesh Kala Krida indoor stadium-Pune, on 11th January.  The four-day exhibition theme scheduled during 11 - 14 January 2019 is eco-friendly transportation of smart city. There will be two days of technical conference, business meets and industrial visits to automobile companies in the region. Experts will share their knowledge and deliberate on topics focusing on the technological trends and business practices.

The International Tripartite Rubber Council, comprising of Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand are meeting in Bangkok on 19th and 20th January 2019 to find ways to boost rubber demand.

Overall sentiment remains bearish due to subdued demand from tyre manufacturers and expectations of a rise in global rubber output. However, a spike in crude oil prices due to a cut in output by West Asian and other producers might lend support to rubber prices.

The benchmark RSS4 grade rubber closed at `.124.50 a kg at Kottayam, while RSS3 grade closed at `.108.37 a kg at Bangkok and Malaysian SMR20 closed at `.96.51 a kg. On ICEX, January 2019, the futures closed at `.126.08 a kg, February at `.128.05, March at `.130.19, April at `.125.64, May at `.126.91 and June closed at `.128.17 a kg. Tokyo Commodity Exchange January 2019 futures series closed at ¥181.4 a kg, February at ¥180.2, March at ¥181.4, April at ¥181.7, May at ¥181.8 and the contract for delivery in June 2019 closed at ¥181.6 a kg. On Wednesday, most probably Tocom futures contract for delivery in June 2019 may trade in the range of ¥182 & ¥188 a kg.

To read Rubber4U – 15th January 2019 issue: http://rubber4u.com/Public/Abcd.pdf

For 2018-19 Rubber Forecast: http://rubber4u.com/Public/RForecast.pdf

Tropical Storm: Thailand's worst in nearly 30 years

Thai Meteorological Department warned of torrential downpours and strong winds in 15 provinces in Thailand south, home to natural rubber plantations. The strong winds are forecast with waves up to 3 to 5 meters high in the Gulf and 2 to 3 meters high in the Andaman Sea. There are fears that the storm will be the worst to hit Thailand since 1989.

The benchmark RSS4 grade rubber closed at `.125 a kg at Kottayam, while RSS3 grade closed at `.108.70 a kg at Bangkok and Malaysian SMR20 closed at `.96.36 a kg. On ICEX, January 2019, the futures closed at `.127.63 a kg, February at `.129.41, March at `.131.60, April at `.125.64, May at `.126.91 and June closed at `.128.17 a kg. Tokyo Commodity Exchange January 2019 futures series closed at ¥175.2 a kg, February at ¥175.8, March at ¥176, April at ¥176.6, May at ¥176.4 and the contract for delivery in June 2019 closed at ¥177 a kg.

To read Rubber4U – 15th January 2019 issue: http://rubber4u.com/Public/Abcd.pdf

For 2018-19 Rubber Forecast: http://rubber4u.com/Public/RForecast.pdf