Rubber price scenario

The fall in the natural rubber prices in the international market is due to high degree of uncertainty about the European situation and its effects on economic growth. There were anxious market moves in the U.S., and is expected to see similar moves in coming days also. The euro is most likely to continue its trend deterioration until it gets really bad, forcing a resolution to come.

Most probably on Monday, Indian Stock Market may open in red and if the day continues in red then one can expect domestic NR prices moving towards north. Today, at the National Multi Commodity Exchange (NMCE), rubber future prices for October delivery closed at Rs 208.82 per kg and for November, December, January & February closed at Rs. 205.04. Rs. 206.36, Rs. 207.06 and Rs. 209 per kg, respectively.

If the above scenario happens, then there is a possibility of increase in import of natural rubber. On the other hand India’s Commerce & Industry Minister said that government may announce a relief package for exporters before Diwali. The need for the package is important as the country’s economic growth is seen moderating in the wake of turmoil in developed nations of the world.

Read lot more in Rubber4U – 15th October 2011 issue

Rubber price goes down

The fall in the natural rubber prices in domestic market is because of speculation as well as international future markets and slowdown in demand. Today the price of RSS3 grade natural rubber in the international market at Bangkok closed at Rs 207.33 per kg., SMR-20 closed at 198.75 a kg at Kuala Lumpur and on the other hand domestic RSS4 grade closed at Rs. 208.50 a kg at Kottayam. At the National Multi Commodity Exchange (NMCE), rubber future prices for October delivery closed at Rs 209.83 per kg. At Tokyo Commodity Exchange futures prices for October delivery closed at 290 yen/kg.

In the first quarter of the current fiscal, NR imports doubled to 38,233 tonnes from 19,118 tonnes during the same quarter of previous fiscal. Now we have to wait and see what will the natural rubber import situation in the 3^rd quarter.

Read lot more in Rubber4U – 1st October 2011 issue

Rubber producers urged to cut exports & TOCOM to narrow circuit breaker

Tokyo Commodity Exchange (TOCOM), will halve the price width of its circuit-breaker for rubber futures from 3^rd October 2011 to help limit market volatility. When a circuit breaker is triggered, TOCOM suspends trading for five minutes before the trading band is widened, helping to moderate any sharp accelerations in price moments.

Currently, the circuit-breaker is hit when prices move up or down by 10 yen. The new circuit-breaker will be hit after price rises or falls of 5 yen from the night session of 30th September, which is counted as part of the next trading day’s session. The circuit-breaker would kick in three times up to a maximum price move of 20 yen, at which point trading would effectively halt.

Tokyo rubber futures, which set the tone for physical prices, rebounded today after tumbling 12% to a one-year low around 303 yen a kg yesterday, hit by a global sell-off in risk assets. The International Rubber Consortium (IRCo) has urged Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia to curb exports if rubber prices fall further in the wake of a global economic slowdown.

We’ve advised the three countries to slow exports if the rubber price falls to a certain level that we can’t accept. We are waiting for responses from the three countries. We can’t disclose the price level. We call it our defence price. If the price reaches the threshold, we have to react, said Yium Tavarolit, IRCo’s chief secretary.

Read lot more in Rubber4U – 1st October 2011 issue

Demand outlook worsens

Oil prices have been on a very gradual downward trend since April and have been brought down by the continuous poor economic reports, from the US, Europe and China. Oil prices fell sharply fearing that global economy is headed for a double dip recession and wave of economic crisis will significantly reduce global energy demand.

Auto industry has slowed down due to high fuel cost and hike in the interest rates. Rubber prices have also soared, affecting production of tyres. The increase in the raw material prices has affected the rubber industry. Removal of anti-dumping duty on Chinese tyres has damaged competitive environment in Indian tyre industry. There is uncertainty in the industry because of the competition posed by the Chinese tyre companies. Chinese tyres come 20% cheaper compared to Indian tyres. In the coming months, tyre companies will struggle to hold on their own and many of them may see red in their balance sheets.

While addressing the media persons at the 59th AGM of All India Rubber Industries Association at Chennai, Rubber Board Chairperson, Sheela Thomas, said rubber production is set to increase to 9.02 lakh tonnes and the consumption will be over 9.77 lakh tonnes during the year. The industry believes the estimates of shortfall by the board are conservative, and the board had launched a separate survey to assess the natural rubber stocks. The findings of the sample survey is expected to be out in October.

The Rubber Board is projecting a 75,000 tonnes shortfall in availability of natural rubber this year. The President of All India Rubber Industries Association, Vinod Simon, said securing the natural rubber is the single largest concern for the industry. While long term initiatives could include expansion of plantation areas. Government needs to be supportive on short term measures like facilitating imports. The prevailing import duties need to be brought down as costs are increasing and the shortfall cannot be bridged at current rates.

The price of RSS3 grade natural rubber in the international market at Bangkok today closed at Rs 219.74 per kg., SMR-20 closed at 216.50 a kg at Kuala Lumpur and on the other hand domestic RSS4 grade closed at Rs. 211 a kg at Kottayam. At the National Multi Commodity Exchange (NMCE), rubber future prices for October delivery closed at Rs 212.07 per kg. At Tokyo Commodity Exchange futures prices for October delivery closed at 297.70 yen/kg.

Read lot more in Rubber4U – 1st October 2011 issue

AIRIA Office Bearers for the year 2011-12

Petrol gets dearer and the interest ……

Crude oil import gets costlier with the drop in rupee value. India has been increasing fuel prices in order to ease its fiscal burden. Petrol prices have gone up once again, which is the second hike by the government in four months. After the hike the petrol would cost Rs. 66.84 a litre in Delhi, Rs. 71.62 in Mumbai, Rs. 71.15 in Kolkata, Rs. 70.64 in Chennai and Rs. 74.50 in Bangalore.

Inflation in India rose to 9.78% for August, its highest in 13 months, adding to expectations that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will raise interest rates on 16^th September, for the 12th time since March 2010. The hike in petrol prices and also hike in interest rates will impact the auto sector. The interest rate on automobile loans is expected move up, resulting in weak demand for the vehicles. The sluggish growth in auto sales will impact rubber goods manufacturing industry also.

Read lot more in Rubber4U – 1st October 2011 issue

List of Tyres allowed to import

Tyres allowed to Import