Thursday, March 31, 2016
Monday, March 28, 2016
Encouraging factors push up prices
The natural rubber futures are gaining here
on price-supporting measures by producing countries, with the August contract
for a benchmark product trading at a seven-month high on the Tokyo Commodity
Exchange.
The most actively traded September contract closed
at ¥180.5 per kg, higher than the recent low in early February. Prices are also
climbing because many producing countries are entering the dry season; output
is expected to drop about 20% till May. The price of crude oil, which is used
to make synthetic rubber, is on the rise. Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia plans
to cut total exports by 615,000 tonnes over the six months starting in March
will also help in pushing up prices. Recently, Indonesian government announced
that it will buy 500,000 tonnes of natural rubber.
The benchmark RSS4 grade rubber closed at `.114
a kg at Kottayam, while RSS3 grade closed at `.101 a kg at Bangkok
and Malaysian SMR20 closed at `.89.13 a kg. On
National Multi Commodity Exchange April 2016, the futures closed at `.117.66
a kg, May at `.119.01 and June 2016 closed at `.120.39
a kg. Tokyo Commodity Exchange April 2016 futures series closed at ¥170.7 a kg,
May 2016 at ¥172.1, June at ¥174.8, July at ¥177.5, August at ¥179.3 and the
contract for delivery in September 2016 closed at ¥180.5 a kg. On Tuesay, most
probably Tocom futures contract for delivery in September 2016 may trade in the
range of ¥182 & ¥176 a kg.
For 2015-16 Rubber Forecast: http://rubber4u.com/Public/RForecast.pdf
Friday, March 25, 2016
Initiative by Indonesia
At the launch of a replanting program the
Indonesian government said government agencies and state owned companies will
buy 500,000 tonnes of locally produced rubber to help support rubber prices. The
government gave no details on the timing of the purchases. The government would
provide subsidised loans to farmers to replant 1 million hectares of rubber
plantation between 2016 and 2019.
The benchmark RSS4 grade rubber closed at `.113
a kg at Kottayam, while RSS3 grade closed at `.101.36 a kg at
Bangkok and Malaysian SMR20 closed at `.87.19 a kg. On
National Multi Commodity Exchange April 2016, the futures closed at `.116.61
a kg, May at `.118.39 and June 2016 closed at `.119.33
a kg. Tokyo Commodity Exchange March 2016 futures series closed at ¥167 a kg, April
at ¥166, May 2016 at ¥168.4, June at ¥170, July at ¥173 and the contract for
delivery in August 2016 closed at ¥175.3 a kg.
For 2015-16 Rubber Forecast: http://rubber4u.com/Public/RForecast.pdf
Tuesday, March 15, 2016
Thursday, March 10, 2016
Market linked insurance for plantation
Indian government is likely to initiate a
market linked insurance scheme for plantation crops, which will be implemented
on a pilot basis in 7 districts and will provide insurance cover against
fluctuation in prices and yield. The revenue insurance scheme for plantation
crops will be launched once the operational parameters are finalised by the
government. The scheme will be funded from the price stabilisation fund for
plantation crops.
While addressing at the India Rubber Meet
2016 in Goa, the event organised by the Rubber Board in partnership with
stakeholder associations in rubber and related sectors, the Rubber Board chairman,
A Jayathilak said excessive import of rubber products including tyres, often on
account of dumping and tariff concessions offered under Free Trade Agreements
(FTAs), is a critical issue. Rubber is one of the most critical, strategic and
versatile raw materials in the modern world and will remain so the in the
foreseeable future. Its demand and prices are positively linked to economic
growth. Link between the industry and economic growth brings in fortunes during
booms and hardships during busts.
According to Rubber4U estimate, domestic
industry will have to face volatile situations. Currently, when the crude oil
is trading at its recent low level, petrol price has not come down
comparatively, due to increase in taxes. At this juncture auto sector is
struggling to sustain. Think when these prices start shooting up; inflation
will increase, sales quantity will decrease, so the raw material demands. But
natural rubber price is expected to move to a level of `.150
a kg. As we have earlier forecasted that natural rubber price will touch `.92
a kg level, this too is also expected to happen.
The benchmark RSS4 grade rubber closed at `.107
a kg at Kottayam, while RSS3 grade closed at `.98.55 a kg at
Bangkok and Malaysian SMR20 closed at `.87.30 a kg. On
National Multi Commodity Exchange March 2016, the futures closed at `.105.17
a kg, April at `.108.22, May at `.110.36 and June 2016
closed at `.111.41 a kg. Tokyo Commodity Exchange March 2016 futures
series closed at ¥160.4 a kg, April at ¥164, May 2016 at ¥166.7, June at ¥168.4,
July at ¥170.1 and the contract for delivery in August 2016 closed at ¥171.4 a
kg. On Friday, most probably Tocom futures contract for delivery in August 2016
may trade in the range of ¥174 & ¥168 a kg.
For 2015-16 Rubber Forecast: http://rubber4u.com/Public/RForecast.pdf
Monday, February 29, 2016
Sunday, February 28, 2016
Lots of expectations, will it get fulfilled?
Union Budget 2016-17 will be presented on 29th February and industry
expects to see a blueprint that would strengthen the demand scenario and would
be focused on pushing the Indian economy to the targeted GDP growth. Finance
minister Arun Jaitley faces a tough task of balancing the needs of farm sector
as well as the industry when he presents his third Budget. On the tax front,
the Budget may continue with the status quo, while it may tinker with the
exemptions.
While the fortune of the Indian tyre industry is knotted with the
performance of the automotive sector. With economic activity gathering pace and
the RBI ushering in monetary easing, it could boost consumer sentiment. The domestic
production of natural rubber is insufficient to meet the growing demand; import
dependence will remain for quite some time, as the gap is widening. But it
should not be at the cost of hurting domestic business, especially when the
industry is going through a manufacturing slump. Demand for tyres is expected
to accelerate in 2016-17. Industry expects this budget to help boost demand and
keep the industry momentum going.
The Association of Planters of Kerala wanted
amendments in the Plantation Labour Act, which mandates the provision of
housing, sanitation and medical care facilities to workers. While Indian Rubber
Dealers Federation has urged the Centre to enhance the replanting subsidy to `.1
lakh per hectare from the present `.20,000. Growers seek
a temporary ban on imports till a safeguard duty is levied.
Automotive Tyre Manufacturers Association
(ATMA) said the existing curbs on natural rubber import are restricting them
from sourcing the raw material at competitive prices at a time when domestic
output is declining sharply. In view of such steep fall in natural rubber
production, imports are a must to meet the growing demand of tyres from auto
and transport sectors. High import duties on natural rubber and much lower duties
on finished tyres is leading to indiscriminate surge in import and dumping of
tyres in India.
Don’t expect much on Monday.
The benchmark RSS4 grade rubber closed at `.96.50
a kg at Kottayam, while RSS3 grade closed at `.89.42 a kg at
Bangkok and Malaysian SMR20 closed at `.78.03 a kg. On
National Multi Commodity Exchange March 2016, the futures closed at `.98.53
a kg, April at `.101.94 and May 2016 closed at `.103.90
a kg. Tokyo Commodity Exchange March 2016 futures series closed at ¥147.4 a kg,
April at ¥149.5, May 2016 at ¥152.3, June at ¥153.9, July at ¥155.2 and the
contract for delivery in August 2016 closed at ¥155.6 a kg. On Monday, most
probably Tocom futures contract for delivery in August 2016 may trade in
negative range of ¥153 & ¥158 a kg.
For 2015-16 Rubber Forecast: http://rubber4u.com/Public/RForecast.pdf
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