Conference on Friday

A conference has been organised by Karnataka Rubber Planters Association (KRPA) in view of various issues being faced by rubber growers, especially after the steep fall in the prices of natural rubber in the last several years, on 18th October 2019 at the Dakshina Kannada District Central Cooperative Bank Hall, Kodialbail, Mangaluru at 11 a.m.

K.N. Raghavan, Executive Director of Rubber Board of India will inaugurate the conference, which will discuss subsidy issues, demand for minimum support price, issues related to tapping of latex and the like, according to N. Sharath Bhandary, president of KRPA.

The benchmark RSS4 grade rubber closed at `.120 a kg at Kottayam, while RSS3 grade closed at `.103.42 a kg at Bangkok and Malaysian SMR20 closed at `.92.47 a kg. On ICEX, November 2019, the futures closed at `.119.64 a kg, December at `.120.06, January 2020 at `.124.53, February at `.125.77, March at `.127.03 and April closed at `.128.30 a kg. Tokyo Commodity Exchange October 2019 futures series closed at ¥149.1 a kg, November at ¥151.8, December at ¥156, January 2020 at ¥157.5, February at ¥160.8 and the contract for delivery in March 2020 closed at ¥162.6 a kg. On Thurday, most probably Tocom futures contract for delivery in March may trade in the range of ¥162 & ¥166 a kg.

To read Rubber4U – 15th October 2019 issue: http://rubber4u.com/Public/Abcd.pdf

For National Rubber Policy: http://rubber4u.com/Public/NRP2019.pdf

For 2019-20 Rubber Forecast: http://rubber4u.com/Public/Forecast2019-20.pdf

As expected

The Reserve Bank of India’s six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) cut the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.15% to kick start economic growth languishing at six-year lows. The RBI maintained its accommodative stance and said it would maintain this position as long as it is necessary to revive growth, while ensuring inflation remains within target.

On 3rd October, benchmark RSS4 grade rubber closed at `.122 a kg at Kottayam, while on 4th October, RSS3 grade closed at `.100.26 a kg at Bangkok and Malaysian SMR20 closed at `.88.82 a kg. Tokyo Commodity Exchange October 2019 futures series closed at ¥149 a kg, November at ¥151.2, December at ¥152.1, January 2020 at ¥152.9, February at ¥155.6 and the contract for delivery in March 2020 closed at ¥157.1 a kg.

To read Rubber4U – 1st October 2019 issue: http://rubber4u.com/Public/Abcd.pdf

For National Rubber Policy: http://rubber4u.com/Public/NRP2019.pdf

For 2019-20 Rubber Forecast: http://rubber4u.com/Public/Forecast2019-20.pdf

R4U Facts & Figures Forecast 2019-20

Lots of expectation on back of slowdown

Oil prices edged higher on expectations that OPEC will extend an output cut agreement, while investors awaited a meeting between the United States and China that could produce a breakthrough on trade talks. The OPEC meeting will follow the G20 summit this weekend.

For the second time in seven months, a gathering of the leaders at G20 meeting will be eclipsed by a sidelines meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, who will try to revive their countries’ stalled trade negotiations.

The U.S. and China appear to be making progress on trade talks ahead of the G20 meeting, but if the U.S. and China cannot come to an agreement and the trade fight escalates, oil prices could plunge to $30 per barrel, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch. That is because the Trump administration has threatened to impose tariffs on $300 billion worth of Chinese imports, which would cover just about every Chinese good coming into the country. The economic pain on the global economy would be substantial.

U.S. President Donald Trump said he would be talking about trade with Indian Prime Minister when the two leaders sit down for a bilateral meeting on the sidelines of G20 summit meeting on Friday.

The benchmark RSS4 grade rubber closed at `.151 a kg at Kottayam, while RSS3 grade closed at `.140.83 a kg at Bangkok and Malaysian SMR20 closed at `.103.77 a kg. On ICEX, July 2019, the futures closed at `.150.84 a kg, August at `.145.52, September at `.147.69, October at `.149.16, November at `.150.66 and December closed at `.152.16 a kg. Tokyo Commodity Exchange July 2019 futures series closed at ¥234.5 a kg, August at ¥233.5, September at ¥221.9, October at ¥208.2, November at ¥199.2 and the contract for delivery in December 2019 closed at ¥194.6 a kg. On Friday, most probably Tocom futures contract for delivery in December may trade in the range of ¥189 & ¥195 a kg.

To read Rubber4U – 1st July 2019 issue: http://rubber4u.com/Public/Abcd.pdf

For National Rubber Policy: http://rubber4u.com/Public/NRP2019.pdf

Worries over slowdown but prices on upward trend

Thailand will cut rubber exports by 126,240 tonnes for four months from 20th May to shore up natural rubber prices. Thailand will proceed as agreed by International Tripartite Rubber Council and will assess results every month.

The three countries (Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia) account for about 70% of the world's natural rubber production and decided for export cutbacks of 240,000 metric tonnes collectively to support prices. Besides curbing exports, the group also agreed to try to significantly ramp up the domestic use of rubber in each of the three producers through developments such as rubberised roads. 

The benchmark RSS4 grade rubber closed at `.137 a kg at Kottayam, while RSS3 grade closed at `.125.65 a kg at Bangkok and Malaysian SMR20 closed at `.106.75 a kg. On ICEX, June 2019, the futures closed at `.138.06 a kg, July at `.139.98, August at `.134.69, September at `.136.04, October at `.137.39 and November closed at `.138.76 a kg. Tokyo Commodity Exchange May 2019 futures series closed at ¥201.8 a kg, June at ¥202.7, July at ¥202.7, August at ¥199.4, September at ¥194.1 and the contract for delivery in October 2019 closed at ¥192.8 a kg.

To read Rubber4U – 15th May 2019 issue: http://rubber4u.com/Public/Abcd.pdf

For National Rubber Policy: http://rubber4u.com/Public/NRP2019.pdf

Nervous outlook

The Indian market is getting more and more nervous as it approaches the end to the 7 stage general elections on 19th May. The results will be out on 23rd May. Brent crude futures are holding above $70 a barrel and the elevated oil prices will add to the miseries of the Indian market as the commodity price has a direct impact on the country's fiscal maths and currency.

According to a survey by FICCI, sentiment in the manufacturing sector remains positive as overall capacity utilisation rose to 80% during January-March 2019. India's April retail inflation report will be out on 13th May, while the wholesale inflation numbers will be released on 14th May. There is the anticipation for a slight uptick in inflation for April, while the market is hoping that it may still remain under the RBI's target, boosting the chance for another 25 basis point trim in key rates in June.

The two-day US-China trade talks concluded without bearing any fruit. However, hopes have not died completely as both the countries have agreed to hold more trade talk’s in the future in Beijing.

The benchmark RSS4 grade rubber closed at `.131.50 a kg at Kottayam, while RSS3 grade closed at `.122.32 a kg at Bangkok and Malaysian SMR20 closed at `.104.98 a kg. On ICEX, May 2019, the futures closed at `.132.47 a kg, June at `.134.57, July at `.136.09, August at `.133.36, September at `.134.69 and October closed at `.136.03 a kg. Tokyo Commodity Exchange May 2019 futures series closed at ¥195 a kg, June at ¥196, July at ¥195.9, August at ¥193.5, September at ¥188 and the contract for delivery in October 2019 closed at ¥186.7 a kg. On Monday, most probably Tocom futures contract for delivery in October may trade in the range of ¥185 & ¥190 a kg.

To read Rubber4U – 15th May 2019 issue: http://rubber4u.com/Public/Abcd.pdf

Face Book: https://www.facebook.com/Rubber4U-1706372399645495/

Indonesia to propose rubber export restriction

According to a senior trade ministry official, Indonesia will propose implementation of the Agreed Export Tonnage Scheme (AETS) and expansion of rubber usage in construction at International Tripartite Rubber Council meeting in Bangkok during 21-22 February, to prop up prices for natural rubber.

After a prolonged delay, Indian Union Ministry of Commerce and Industry has finally prepared and released a draft National Rubber Policy. The draft is put up in the public domain in order to seek wider consultation and feedback/suggestions by 25th February 2019 from the stakeholders so as to provide final shape to the policy.

The benchmark RSS4 grade rubber closed at `.124.50 a kg at Kottayam, while RSS3 grade closed at `.118.36 a kg at Bangkok and Malaysian SMR20 closed at `.102.49 a kg. On ICEX, March 2019, the futures closed at `.127.01 a kg, April at `.130.15, May at `.126.91, June at `.128.17, July at `.129.45 and August closed at `.130.74 a kg. Tokyo Commodity Exchange February 2019 futures series closed at ¥193.5 a kg, March at ¥190.3, April at ¥192.1, May at ¥194.1, June at ¥195.5 and the contract for delivery in July 2019 closed at ¥197.5 a kg. On Thursday, most probably Tocom futures contract for delivery in July may trade in the range of ¥194 & ¥200 a kg.

To read Rubber4U – 1st March 2019 issue: http://rubber4u.com/Public/Abcd.pdf

Face Book: https://www.facebook.com/Rubber4U-1706372399645495/

For 2018-19 Rubber Forecast: http://rubber4u.com/Public/RForecast.pdf