Rubber4U

Rubber4U - 1st April 2020 issue

Lots of hope on back of slowdown

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) may cut interest rates for the sixth straight time on 5th December to support growth that has continued to slip to more than six-year low on slump in manufacturing. RBI has cut interest rates on every single occasion the multi-member monetary policy committee (MPC) has met.

GDP growth slowed sharply to a pace of 4.5% in the July-September 2019, hit by a slump in manufacturing output, which contracted by 1.0%.

United States sparking off a trade war with Brazil and Argentina, amid an ongoing dispute with China. U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday said he would impose tariffs on steel and aluminium imports from Brazil and Argentina, taking the trade war to new pastures even as the United States looks to sign a trade deal with China.

The benchmark RSS4 grade rubber closed at `.130.50 a kg at Kottayam, while RSS3 grade closed at `.110.63 a kg at Bangkok and Malaysian SMR20 closed at `.102.17 a kg. On Monday, ICEX December 2019, the futures closed at `.133.07 a kg, January 2020 at `.134.35, February at `.136.97, March at `.133.49, April at `.134.82 and May closed at `.136.16 a kg. Today, Tokyo Commodity Exchange December 2019 futures series closed at ¥169.0 a kg, January 2020 at ¥168.2, February at ¥171.3, March at ¥177.4, April at ¥184.2 and the contract for delivery in May 2020 closed at ¥189.0 a kg.

To read Rubber4U – 1st December 2019 issue: http://rubber4u.com/Public/Abcd.pdf

For National Rubber Policy: http://rubber4u.com/Public/NRP2019.pdf

For 2019-20 Rubber Forecast: http://rubber4u.com/Public/Forecast2019-20.pdf

Oil prices increased

A spokesperson for China’s Commerce Ministry, Gao Feng said at a weekly briefing in Chinese that U.S and China have agreed to remove the additional duties imposed on each other’s products in different phases after they make progress in reaching a deal. Canceling tariffs is vital to the first phase of their trade agreement, which both sides have agreed to do as negotiations progress.

But stock market retreats as Trump says he hasn't agreed to roll back China tariffs. U.S. stocks traded mostly lower after President Trump cast doubt on earlier reports that the administration would agree to roll back import duties on China as part of a œphase-one trade deal.

U.S Crude Oil WTI closed at $57.24 per barrel, while International Brent Oil Future closed at $62.51.

The benchmark RSS4 grade rubber closed at `.126 a kg at Kottayam, while RSS3 grade closed at `.106.46 a kg at Bangkok and Malaysian SMR20 closed at `.96.05 a kg. On ICEX, November 2019, the futures closed at `.128.10 a kg, December at `.129.09, January 2020 at `.130.28, February at `.125.77, March at `.127.03 and April closed at `.128.30 a kg. Tokyo Commodity Exchange November 2019 futures series closed at ¥158.9 a kg, December at ¥162.8, January 2020 at ¥166.5, February at ¥170.6, March at ¥174.9 and the contract for delivery in April 2020 closed at ¥177.3 a kg.

To read Rubber4U – 15th November 2019 issue: http://rubber4u.com/Public/Abcd.pdf

For National Rubber Policy: http://rubber4u.com/Public/NRP2019.pdf

For 2019-20 Rubber Forecast: http://rubber4u.com/Public/Forecast2019-20.pdf

Conference on Friday

A conference has been organised by Karnataka Rubber Planters Association (KRPA) in view of various issues being faced by rubber growers, especially after the steep fall in the prices of natural rubber in the last several years, on 18th October 2019 at the Dakshina Kannada District Central Cooperative Bank Hall, Kodialbail, Mangaluru at 11 a.m.

K.N. Raghavan, Executive Director of Rubber Board of India will inaugurate the conference, which will discuss subsidy issues, demand for minimum support price, issues related to tapping of latex and the like, according to N. Sharath Bhandary, president of KRPA.

The benchmark RSS4 grade rubber closed at `.120 a kg at Kottayam, while RSS3 grade closed at `.103.42 a kg at Bangkok and Malaysian SMR20 closed at `.92.47 a kg. On ICEX, November 2019, the futures closed at `.119.64 a kg, December at `.120.06, January 2020 at `.124.53, February at `.125.77, March at `.127.03 and April closed at `.128.30 a kg. Tokyo Commodity Exchange October 2019 futures series closed at ¥149.1 a kg, November at ¥151.8, December at ¥156, January 2020 at ¥157.5, February at ¥160.8 and the contract for delivery in March 2020 closed at ¥162.6 a kg. On Thurday, most probably Tocom futures contract for delivery in March may trade in the range of ¥162 & ¥166 a kg.

To read Rubber4U – 15th October 2019 issue: http://rubber4u.com/Public/Abcd.pdf

For National Rubber Policy: http://rubber4u.com/Public/NRP2019.pdf

For 2019-20 Rubber Forecast: http://rubber4u.com/Public/Forecast2019-20.pdf

As expected

The Reserve Bank of India’s six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) cut the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.15% to kick start economic growth languishing at six-year lows. The RBI maintained its accommodative stance and said it would maintain this position as long as it is necessary to revive growth, while ensuring inflation remains within target.

On 3rd October, benchmark RSS4 grade rubber closed at `.122 a kg at Kottayam, while on 4th October, RSS3 grade closed at `.100.26 a kg at Bangkok and Malaysian SMR20 closed at `.88.82 a kg. Tokyo Commodity Exchange October 2019 futures series closed at ¥149 a kg, November at ¥151.2, December at ¥152.1, January 2020 at ¥152.9, February at ¥155.6 and the contract for delivery in March 2020 closed at ¥157.1 a kg.

To read Rubber4U – 1st October 2019 issue: http://rubber4u.com/Public/Abcd.pdf

For National Rubber Policy: http://rubber4u.com/Public/NRP2019.pdf

For 2019-20 Rubber Forecast: http://rubber4u.com/Public/Forecast2019-20.pdf

R4U Facts & Figures Forecast 2019-20

Lots of expectation on back of slowdown

Oil prices edged higher on expectations that OPEC will extend an output cut agreement, while investors awaited a meeting between the United States and China that could produce a breakthrough on trade talks. The OPEC meeting will follow the G20 summit this weekend.

For the second time in seven months, a gathering of the leaders at G20 meeting will be eclipsed by a sidelines meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, who will try to revive their countries’ stalled trade negotiations.

The U.S. and China appear to be making progress on trade talks ahead of the G20 meeting, but if the U.S. and China cannot come to an agreement and the trade fight escalates, oil prices could plunge to $30 per barrel, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch. That is because the Trump administration has threatened to impose tariffs on $300 billion worth of Chinese imports, which would cover just about every Chinese good coming into the country. The economic pain on the global economy would be substantial.

U.S. President Donald Trump said he would be talking about trade with Indian Prime Minister when the two leaders sit down for a bilateral meeting on the sidelines of G20 summit meeting on Friday.

The benchmark RSS4 grade rubber closed at `.151 a kg at Kottayam, while RSS3 grade closed at `.140.83 a kg at Bangkok and Malaysian SMR20 closed at `.103.77 a kg. On ICEX, July 2019, the futures closed at `.150.84 a kg, August at `.145.52, September at `.147.69, October at `.149.16, November at `.150.66 and December closed at `.152.16 a kg. Tokyo Commodity Exchange July 2019 futures series closed at ¥234.5 a kg, August at ¥233.5, September at ¥221.9, October at ¥208.2, November at ¥199.2 and the contract for delivery in December 2019 closed at ¥194.6 a kg. On Friday, most probably Tocom futures contract for delivery in December may trade in the range of ¥189 & ¥195 a kg.

To read Rubber4U – 1st July 2019 issue: http://rubber4u.com/Public/Abcd.pdf

For National Rubber Policy: http://rubber4u.com/Public/NRP2019.pdf