Economy to grow, while NR output to drop

8The growth data from the US has been very positive and the third quarter number came in at a more than expected 4.1% q-o-q annualised. This robust US growth will support the global economic recovery and as a relief to remove uncertainty from the markets. India, on the other hand, is going through a challenging macro-economic environment as it heads into election year in 2014. Reserve Bank of India has been fine-tuning its policies to prop-up growth and curb inflation. India's growth level this fiscal will probably remain at 5%.

During April-December 2013 period, the production of natural rubber has fallen more than 10% to 627,000 tonnes, compared to 697,200 tonnes during the same period of 2012. Consumption during April-December 2013 period dropped to 728,080 tonnes, compared to 742,480 tonnes in the April-December 2012. Natural rubber imports shot up to 264,576 tonnes in the April-December 2013, as against 173,441 tonnes in the same period of 2012.

The bad trend in production might seriously affect the availability of natural rubber over the next few months and Rubber Board sources said that the total production will be confined to 870,000 tonnes. According to growers, production is likely to drop to 800,000 tonnes according to the current trend.

Today, RSS4 grade closed at `.152 a kg at Kottayam, while RSS3 grade closed at `.147.26 a kg at Bangkok and Malaysian SMR20 closed at `.136.41 a kg. National Multi Commodity Exchange January 2014 futures closed at `.152.84 a kg, February at `.154.96, March at `.157.74, April at `.162.05 and May at `.164.37 a kg. On Friday, Tokyo Commodity Exchange, January 2014 futures series closed at ¥265.3 a kg, February at ¥264.4, March at ¥257.5, April at ¥256.4, May at ¥256.3, and the contract for delivery in June 2014 closed at ¥256.3 a kg. On Tuesday, most probably market will be in red and the possibility is that contract for delivery in June may touch a low of  ¥248 a kg mark.  

Read lot more in Rubber4U – 15th January 2014 issue

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