Estimated natural rubber scenario

Indian economy recorded a growth of 6.1% in the third quarter of 2011-12. Natural rubber in the Indian markets seems to be on a consolidation mode. RSS4 grade rubber in the spot market have been trading firmly between Rs.187-Rs.188.50 per kg during the previous week. Higher stock estimates and imports, consistent rise in natural rubber production and lackluster demand from the major rubber consumers may keep markets under pressure and it seems that the price may touch Rs. 183 per kg mark during the week.

Amid lean production season, rise in natural rubber prices in the international market probably may lead to a recovery in the local markets after the dip. RSS4 grade rubber currently being on a discount to Bangkok RSS3 grade and difference in prices prevailing in the local and international market may open up possibilities of exports.

The estimated natural rubber scenario for 2011-12 according to Rubber4U would be as given below:

Period	NR Prod.	Import	NR Cons.	Export
April-January 2011-12	784400	157000	799980	24150
February 2012	60800	12000	78700	1650
March 2012	57800	6800	81000	2700
Total (2011-12)	903000	175800	959680	28500

Natural rubber may advance in the next two months because of a seasonal reduction in output and increasing demand from China and India.

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