Outlook currently seems good

There is a ray of hope in the world economy. Economists are of the view that there are scattered sign of improvement the world over. Certainly, there are still big risks out there. But the good news is simply that things are a lot less bad than they had been in the past.

According to Rubber Trade Association of Japan, crude rubber inventories in the Japanese ports fell by 202 tonnes to 6934 tonnes. According to Vietnam’s General Statistics Office, the nation shipped 117,000 tonnes of rubber in December2012, up 11% from previous assessment of 105,000 tonnes.

Rubber inventories in the warehouses monitored by SHFE fell 3.3% to 98007 tonnes in the previous week. According to reports, the decline is largely owing to storage regulations that forced some merchants to withdraw stocks.  According to IRSG, Production is set to outpace consumption by 179,000 metric tonnes this year and 153,000 tonnes in 2014.

On Wednesday, the weakening yen pushed up Tokyo rubber prices. Rubber for delivery in July advanced to ¥302.9 a kg on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange. In the domestic futures market, the February 2013 series closed at `.155.77, March at `.157.89, April at `.161, May at `.164.35 and June at `.167.99 a kg on the National Multi Commodity Exchange. RSS4 grade rubber closed at `.158 a kg at Kottayam.

Natural rubber imports in the first seven months of the current financial year rose nearly 31.3% compared to same period of 2011-12 to 130,966 tonnes. There is possibility that natural rubber imports could touch 218500 tonnes mark, which was forecasted in Rubber4U-15th August 2012 issue. On 5^th December Rubber4U has forecasted on this site about decrease in import of natural rubber and also on 18^th November 2012 that natural rubber price may not cross Rs.164/- per kg mark in short term, but one expect a move over this mark from February 2^nd week. On Thursday one expect Tocom to cross ¥318 a kg mark for July delivery.