Wednesday, December 31, 2014
Tuesday, December 16, 2014
Market improved on fresh buying
During April-November 2014 period, the cumulative
value of exports increased 6.01% to `.1305792.96 crore, compared
to `.1231786.75 crore
during the same period of 2013. While cumulative value of imports for the
period April-November 2014 was `.1915697.85 crore as
against `.1801892.93 crore during the same period of 2013,
registering a growth of 6.32%. The trade deficit for April-November 2014 was
estimated at `.609904.89 crore.
The rupee on 28th August 2013 hit a lifetime
low of 68.85 against the US dollar on strong demand for the American currency. For
the FY 2014-15, the rupee dropped to its weakest level of 63.46 against dollar on
16th December 2014, as the dollar strengthened against other global currencies.
India's wholesale price inflation in November
eased to 0%, compared to 1.77% in the previous month. The index for the rubber
and plastic products group declined by 0.1% due to lower price of rubber
products.
Kerala has sought `.1000
crore from Centre's Price Stabilisation Fund to provide relief to rubber
growers suffering due to sharp fall in price of natural rubber. The Kerala
Congress (M) delegation stressed that natural rubber imports into the country
should be banned till the domestic price stabilised to a remunerative level.
They pointed out that with Rubber Board statistics; it proves that there is a
huge stock of rubber in the country, there is no justification for imports
projected against the coming months.
Thailand rubber growers threatened to launch
a massive protest if the government failed to increase prices to 80 baht per kg
from about 40 baht currently within a month.
China’s import tariffs for rubber are
currently set at 20% of the value and capped at 1,200 yuan a tonne. According
to analysts, the ministry was expected to raise the cap to 1,600 yuan a tonne
following recommendations by the local rubber association.
The market improved on fresh buying and short
covering as sellers stayed back following the moderate gains. The benchmark
RSS4 grade rubber closed at `.114.50 a kg at
Kottayam, while RSS3 grade closed at `.102.53 a kg at
Bangkok and Malaysian SMR20 closed at `.93.26 a kg. On
National Multi Commodity Exchange December 2014 futures closed at `.113.71
a kg, January 2015 at `.114.69 and February at `.115.98 a kg. On
Tokyo Commodity Exchange, December 2014 futures series closed at ¥181.5 a kg, January
2015 at ¥187.6, February at ¥193, March at ¥196.6, April at ¥200 and the
contract for delivery in May 2015 closed at ¥201.8 a kg. On Wenesday, most
probably Tocom futures contract for delivery in May 2015 may trade in positive
range between ¥200 & ¥207 a kg.
Sunday, December 14, 2014
Will industry revive from crisis?
Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand are
intensifying their efforts to help stop the decline in world rubber prices
which is affecting their economies and planters. Plantation Industries and
Commodities Minister, Amar Douglas Uggah Embas, said 11 Association of Natural
Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC) nations contribute 95% to the world’s
natural rubber supply and if we all worked together, it would make a big impact
in handling the issue.
Indian Rubber Growers Association (IRGA) urged
the government to immediately increase the import duty to 25%. The Kerala
Government should also facilitate more uptake of rubber from the State to
improve prices by way of tax concessions and explore the possibility of rubberisation
of 20% of roads every year.
IRGA has also asked the domestic tyre
manufacturers to buy rubber from India at the landed cost of imported rubber.
Otherwise, the growers have threatened to boycott domestic tyre manufacturers
and resort to buying of cheaper imported tyres, the same way as the raw
material is being imported by the tyre industry. The growers association
comprising UPASI, APK, IRGA etc have filed a petition under the Provisions of
Safeguard before the Directorate of Safeguards-New Delhi to protect the
domestic rubber growers from un-controlled and unrestricted imports.
The benchmark RSS4 grade rubber closed at `.113.50
a kg at Kottayam, while RSS3 grade closed at `.96.52 a kg at
Bangkok and Malaysian SMR20 closed at `.89.36 a kg. On
National Multi Commodity Exchange December 2014 futures closed at `.114.05
a kg, January 2015 at `.112.92 and February at `.113.33 a kg. On
Tokyo Commodity Exchange, December 2014 futures series closed at ¥179.7 a kg, January
2015 at ¥184.8, February at ¥188.4, March at ¥192.2, April at ¥194.6 and the
contract for delivery in May 2015 closed at ¥195.9 a kg. On Monday, most
probably Tocom futures contract for delivery in May 2015 may trade in positive
range between ¥195 & ¥205 a kg.
To know
stock difference read Rubber4U – 15th December 2014 issue: http://rubber4u.com/Public/R4U12b.pdf
Tuesday, December 9, 2014
Rubber slips further down as oil prices falls
The crude oil price has fallen to its weakest
point since October 2009 at US$62.87 per barrel, which has dropped slightly
following the publication of China's monthly trade data, which came in well
below the expectations. China's State Reserves Bureau is to buy 128,500 tonnes
of rubber for its stockpiles, but market participants doubt the move would
offer support to prices.
Rubber farmers are threatening to march on
Bangkok next year if their demands for higher prices and an industry rescue
plan are not met. The Thai government has announced four more short-term
measures to arrest plummeting rubber prices ahead of a planned protest by
farmers. While Tokyo Commodity Exchange rubber contract for May delivery had fallen
to ¥193.6 per kg. It earlier in the day it touched a low of ¥192.7 a kg.
The benchmark RSS4 grade rubber closed at `.115
a kg at Kottayam, while RSS3 grade closed at `.95.28 a kg at
Bangkok and Malaysian SMR20 closed at `.88.80 a kg. On
National Multi Commodity Exchange December 2014 futures closed at `.113.32
a kg, January 2015 at `.113.36 and February at `.114.24 a kg. On
Tokyo Commodity Exchange, December 2014 futures series closed at ¥180.7 a kg, January
2015 at ¥182.6, February at ¥186.1, March at ¥190, April at ¥192.2 and the
contract for delivery in May 2015 closed at ¥193.6 a kg.
Wednesday, December 3, 2014
Inventories declining
Kerala chief minister Oommen Chandy informed
the Assembly that government would demand a curb on import or hike in the
import duty of rubber. The issue would be brought to the notice of the Prime
Minister Narendra Modi when a state delegation meets him soon to apprise him of
the state's concern. Further fall in price of rubber would not only adversely
affect farmers, but also the state's economy. It would also ultimately hit tyre
manufactures in the country, as production would fall with farmers shifting to
other crops
The recent slump in oil prices continued to
weigh on global markets. Brent crude oil dropped to $67.53 a barrel before
recovering to trade around $70.54 a barrel. India, world's fourth largest oil
consumer annual imports 3.8 million barrels of crude per day. As on 1st December,
the international crude oil price of Indian Basket declined to US$ 67.72 a
barrel. Rupee closed weaker at `.62.14 a US$ on 1st December
as against `.61.97 a US$ on 28th November. Reserve Bank of India kept
interest rates unchanged at 8% as widely expected.
According to the nation’s Ministry of
Commerce, Thailand’s natural rubber exports declined 11% to 291641 tonnes in
October. According to a data from the Rubber Trade Association of Japan, as on
20th November, crude rubber inventories at Japanese ports stood at 9,791
tonnes, down by 5.8% compared to 10 days earlier. Rubber inventories in the
warehouses monitored by SHFE declined 24.3% to 136531 tonnes.
The benchmark RSS4 grade rubber closed at `.116.50
a kg at Kottayam, while RSS3 grade closed at `.97.48 a kg at
Bangkok and Malaysian SMR20 closed at `.91.84 a kg. On
National Multi Commodity Exchange December 2014 futures closed at `.114.75
a kg, January 2015 at `.115.77 and February at `.117.02 a kg. On
Tokyo Commodity Exchange, December 2014 futures series closed at ¥184.1 a kg, January
2015 at ¥187.5, February at ¥190.8, March at ¥194.7, April at ¥196.7 and the
contract for delivery in May 2015 closed at ¥198.2 a kg. On Thursday, most
probably Tocom futures contract for delivery in May 2015 may trade between ¥198
& ¥202 a kg.
Sunday, November 30, 2014
Thursday, November 27, 2014
While oil falls, rubber follows it
Crude oil prices have fallen 30% since June
on sluggish global demand and rising production from the US. Today, the Brent
crude price closed at $77.75 a barrel, while WTI crude closed at $73.69 a
barrel. US January crude contract may drop to a 4½ year low of US$69 a barrel.
China's central bank cut its benchmark
lending and deposit rates last week for the first time in more than two years,
taking markets completely by surprise, and is expected to ease policy further.
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will have to take
into account global factors while determining policy rates in India. The economy
around the world faces a trend of disinflation owing to slowing economies and a
sharp drop in crude oil prices. The past few weeks have witnessed a heated
debate on whether the RBI should cut policy rates or maintain status quo. On
2nd December, one can expect a surprise.
The government may extend excise duty
concessions on automobiles beyond 31st December 2014 as the industry continues
to struggle with sluggish demand due to high interest rates. The government is
also likely to introduce the constitutional amendment bill for the goods &
services tax in the winter session of parliament.
The benchmark RSS4 grade rubber closed at `.117.50
a kg at Kottayam, while RSS3 grade closed at `.99.73 a kg at
Bangkok and Malaysian SMR20 closed at `.93.97 a kg. On
National Multi Commodity Exchange December 2014 futures closed at `.115.82
a kg, January 2015 at `.116.90 and February at `.118.14 a kg. On
Tokyo Commodity Exchange, December 2014 futures series closed at ¥187.6 a kg, January
2015 at ¥191.5, February at ¥194.2, March at ¥197.1, April at ¥199.1 and the
contract for delivery in May 2015 closed at ¥200 a kg. On Friday, most probably
Tocom futures contract for delivery in May 2015 may trade between ¥196 &
¥202 a kg.
Thursday, November 20, 2014
Producers agrees to manage supply, to stabilise prices
Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia, which
supply around 67% of the world's natural rubber, have agreed to manage NR
exports to the global market to ensure there is no excess supply and also
agreed not to expand new rubber planting areas beyond targets set earlier and
to boost domestic rubber consumption by 10% annually.
Rubber associations from Thailand to Cambodia
have this year urged producers not to sell the commodity below a minimum price
of $1.50 per kg, while Thailand later approved a subsidy plan worth around $1.8
billion to support farmers. Thai government kicked off the program four days
ago for rubber growers nationwide. Rubber planters in the southern province of
Satun-Thailand have received the assistance fund from the government to
compensate their losses from dropping rubber prices. Each planter is entitled
to a compensation of 1,000 baht per rai, with no more than 15,000 baht per
household. These measures will help global rubber prices recover from their
lowest levels since 2009, but they remains under pressure from slower Chinese
demand.
The International Tripartite Rubber Council
(ITRC) Ministerial Committee Meeting 2014, chaired by Malaysia, is expected to
set up a regional rubber market within 18 months as one of the corrective
measures to stabilise rubber prices. The regional rubber market will merge the
markets of the main natural rubber producing countries providing better price
discovery and effective hedging functions to benefit producers, consumers and
market players.
The benchmark RSS4 grade rubber closed at `.117 a kg at Kottayam, while RSS3 grade closed at `.101.82 a kg at Bangkok and Malaysian SMR20 closed at `.95.09 a kg. On National Multi Commodity Exchange
December 2014 futures closed at `.115.85 a kg, January
2015 at `.115.94 and February at `.116.66 a kg. On
Tokyo Commodity Exchange, November 2014 futures series closed at ¥189.6 a kg,
December at ¥195.6, January 2015 at ¥199.1, February at ¥201.9, March at ¥204.5
and the contract for delivery in April 2015 closed at ¥206 a kg. On Friday,
most probably Tocom futures contract for delivery in April 2015 may trade
between ¥201 & ¥207 a kg.
Tuesday, November 18, 2014
Rubber price down as oil prices falls
Sluggish growth and downward pressure on
inflation due to sliding global oil prices prompted the Bank of Japan to
unexpectedly expand its massive monetary stimulus last month. The world's
third-largest economy, Japan had been forecast to rebound by 2.1%, but GDP fell
at an annualized 1.6% pace in July-September 2014. Japan's economy unexpectedly
slipped into recession in the third quarter.
Crude oil prices slipped below $75 for the
first time in more than four years. Cheaper crude oil means lower prices for
synthetic rubber and there is a possibility that natural rubber prices may fall to `.98
per kg level. Indian rubber growers have stopped the production to cut their
losses. According to them current rubber prices are not high enough to cover
the cost of labour used to harvest and process the commodity.
Following requests to Chinese government
leaders to buy more agricultural products from Thailand, negotiations at the
ministerial level are underway for Thailand to sell 2 million tonnes of rice
and 200,000 tonnes of natural rubber to China on a government-to-government
basis. Company representatives will arrive in Thailand on 19th November to
discuss ways investment in the rubber industry in Thailand, while trade
associations will discuss China's plan to boost its investment in Thailand.
Rubber producers in Asia are to meet this
week to look at more measures to push up prices, which are not far above
five-year lows, including restrictions on supply to global markets.
The benchmark RSS4 grade rubber closed at `.117
a kg at Kottayam, while RSS3 grade closed at `.100.17 a kg at
Bangkok and Malaysian SMR20 closed at `.92.83 a kg. On
National Multi Commodity Exchange December 2014 futures closed at `.115.35
a kg, January 2015 at `.115.55 and February at `.115.89 a kg. On Tokyo
Commodity Exchange, November 2014 futures series closed at ¥187.6 a kg,
December at ¥189.9, January 2015 at ¥193.5, February at ¥196.2, March at ¥198.9
and the contract for delivery in April 2015 closed at ¥200.2 a kg.
For reading Rubber4U – 15th November 2014 issue: http://rubber4u.com/Public/Abcd.pdf
For
2014-15 Rubber Forecast: http://rubber4u.com/Public/RForecast.pdf
Saturday, November 15, 2014
Industry worried about surging tyre imports
The Indian auto component industry is growing
at a CGPA of 8.9% with two-wheelers being the largest domestic customer segment
for the Indian auto components industry. This has encouraged two-wheeler tyre
manufacturers to constantly experiment with newer technology and innovative
ideas to deliver the growing market.
According to Automotive Tyre Manufacturers’
Association, tyre import has come to account for an estimated 20% of the total
domestic market. Chinese government continues to provide multiple, direct and
indirect, subsidies to push exports. The export prices from China are lower
than that of such tyres in Chinese domestic market and also prices of similar
exports originating from Thailand, South Korea. This clearly indicates dumping
of tyres into Indian markets and causing injury to the domestic tyre industry.
The rubber industry is highly fragmented;
producers have been unable to manage a cut in rubber supplies to a level low
enough to support prices. The ban has proved hard to enforce, with millions of
farmers spread over and many living from hand to mouth, forcing them to sell the
commodity to get urgently needed cash. Even middlemen/traders have been forced
to sell to keep their businesses running.
For reading Rubber4U – 15th November 2014 issue: http://rubber4u.com/Public/Abcd.pdf
For
2014-15 Rubber Forecast: http://rubber4u.com/Public/RForecast.pdf
Friday, November 14, 2014
Wednesday, November 12, 2014
Rubber price down as import increases
Global crude oil prices were ruling at four year
lows, raising hopes of another cut in petrol and diesel prices. Today, WTI
crude oil trading in red, the prices fell to $77.23 per barrel at 13.15 GMT.
Indian Oil companies had reduced petrol and diesel prices by `.2.41
and `.2.25 a litre respectively on 31st October, when the
Indian basket was hovering around $84.77 a barrel. A revision in fuel prices is
due on Saturday. Petrol and diesel prices could come down by another `.1
to `.2 per litre. Now India is planning to take advantage of
subdued crude oil prices to get concessions for long-term supply contracts with
major oil exporting countries.
Tokyo rubber futures, which set the tone for
tyre-grade prices, are likely to hold in a narrow range this week, due to
subdued demand from China. According to preliminary trade data issued by
China's General Administration of Customs, the country imported 300,000 tonnes
of natural and synthetic rubber in October 2014, a 6.3% drop compared to September.
In October 2014, India's natural rubber production
fell by 32.56% to 58,000 tonnes compared to 86,000 tonnes in the same period of
2013, as some farmers stopped tapping after prices fell to their lowest level
in five years. While natural rubber consumption in the month increased 1.8% to
83,000 tonnes, compared to 81,530 tonnes. Natural rubber imports increased 27.65%
to 36,865 tonnes compared to 36,865 tonnes in October 2013.
The benchmark RSS4 grade rubber closed at `.118.50
a kg at Kottayam, while RSS3 grade closed at `.101.65 a kg at
Bangkok and Malaysian SMR20 closed at `.95.22 a kg. On
National Multi Commodity Exchange November 2014 futures closed at `.118.99
a kg, December at `.116.13 and January 2015 at `.116.41
a kg. On Tokyo Commodity Exchange, November 2014 futures series closed at ¥192.7
a kg, December at ¥196, January 2015 at ¥199.3, February at ¥201.1, March at ¥203.6
and the contract for delivery in April 2015 closed at ¥204.8 a kg.
For
2014-15 Rubber Forecast, http://rubber4u.com/Public/RForecast.pdf
Sunday, November 9, 2014
Will rubber rebound or go below Rs.110 a kg?
Japanese based Yokohama Rubber announced
start of commercial production at its plant with an investment of over `.300
crore in India at Bahadurgarh-Haryana, which has an installed capacity of 2,000
tyres per day. Indonesian Rubber Association makes a second appeal to its
members to impose strict limit on sales until the second quarter of 2015, while
Malaysian government has allocated 100 million ringgit to support rubber
farmers and a subsidy programme will be activated when the price of SMR20 grade
rubber falls to 4.60 ringgit per kg. Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia are likely
to meet on 20-21 November to discuss plans to set prices together and reduce
supply. Rubber inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures
Exchange rose 1.3% to 173792 tonnes last week.
Ahead of the peak season in India, the rubber
prices are likely to remain subdued as tyre manufacturers have already
stock-piled for most of the requirements. The Kerala State Co-operative Rubber
Marketing Federation Limited has begun procuring RSS-4 and 5 grade rubber
directly from farmers by providing `.5 per kg more than
the rates fixed by Rubber Board, under the Kerala Government’s rubber
procurement scheme. A sub-committee of the panel to formulate National Rubber
Policy is meeting in Kochi this week, which among other things would discuss
steps to boost domestic demand for rubber and protect farmers from steep fall
in rubber prices.
According to Malaysian Rubber Board director general
Datuk Dr Salmiah Ahmad, the demand for natural rubber next year is expected to
be higher than the supply and natural rubber prices, which are at their
five-year low now, are expected to strengthen next year
According to the latest information, the benchmark
RSS4 grade rubber closed at `.120 a kg at
Kottayam, while RSS3 grade closed at `.101.07 a kg at
Bangkok and Malaysian SMR20 closed at `.92.69 a kg. On
National Multi Commodity Exchange November 2014 futures closed at `.120.95
a kg, December at `.118.72, and January 2015 at `.119.47
a kg. Tokyo Commodity Exchange, November 2014 futures series closed at ¥189.9 a
kg, December at ¥193, January 2015 at ¥195.2, February at ¥198, March at ¥199.9
and the contract for delivery in April 2015 closed at ¥200.8 a kg. On Monday,
most probably Tocom futures contract for delivery in April 2015 may trade
between ¥198 & ¥204 a kg.
For
2014-15 Rubber Forecast, http://rubber4u.com/Public/RForecast.pdf
Tuesday, November 4, 2014
Rubber still under pressure
As availability of natural rubber is high,
buyers in the global market may not go for it. Rubber is in a bearish mode. The
fall in crude oil prices is a major problem. It will make synthetic rubber
cheaper. As a result, natural rubber prices will drop and growers will lose
interest in nursing their plantations and tapping rubber.
Brent crude fell to a multi-year low after
Saudi Arabia lowered the price of oil exported to the United States, while
increasing the cost to Asia and Europe. Yesterday WTI closed at US$77.19 a
barrel, while Brent crude closed at US$82.82 a barrel.
The European Commission reduced its estimates
for euro-zone growth, projecting the 18 Nation region's gross domestic product
would climb by 0.8% in 2014 and 1.1% next year, a decline from estimates of 1.2%
and 1.7%.
The benchmark RSS4 grade rubber closed at `.120.50
a kg at Kottayam, while RSS3 grade closed at `.104.04 a kg at
Bangkok and Malaysian SMR20 closed at `.94.21 a kg. On
National Multi Commodity Exchange November 2014 futures closed at `.121.26
a kg, December at `.119.28, and January 2015 at `.119.71
a kg. Tokyo Commodity Exchange, November 2014 futures series closed at ¥190.1 a
kg, December at ¥191.8, January 2015 at ¥193.2, February at ¥195.7, March at ¥198.6
and the contract for delivery in April 2015 closed at ¥199.8 a kg. Tommorrow
most probably Tocom futures contract for delivery in April 2015 may touch a low
of ¥193 a kg.
For
2014-15 Rubber Forecast, http://rubber4u.com/Public/RForecast.pdf
Friday, October 31, 2014
Thursday, October 23, 2014
Bright day ahead
The domestic car sales which were lackluster
in the last year festive season are sparkling this year. Festive season is a
period when most car companies see at least 20% growth in sales. The drop in
fuel prices and stable interest rates has increased the consumer confidence. After
a slowdown of almost three years, the industry this year is seeing steady
volume growth every month and auto industry expects the demand to remain strong
during the year ahead.
Thailand Industry Minister Chakramon
Phasukvanich expressed confidence about the short and long term measures taken
by the government to address the low rubber price will be successful. The
government will be removing excess rubber from the market during November and
April, which will be achieved by having six banks providing loans to latex
processing businesses to buy the excess rubber. This measure is expected to
remove 200,000 tonnes of latex from the system and result in an immediate
increase of rubber price.
Today, the benchmark RSS4 grade rubber closed
at `.125 a kg at Kottayam, while Malaysian SMR20 closed at `.96.26
a kg. On National Multi Commodity Exchange November 2014 futures closed at `.125.62
a kg, December at `.124.82, and January 2015 at `.124.99
a kg. Tokyo Commodity Exchange, October 2014 futures series closed at ¥180.7 a
kg, November at ¥184, December at ¥187.3, January 2015 at ¥191.2, February at
¥194.3 and the contract for delivery in March 2015 closed at ¥195.9 a kg.
Tommorrow most probably RSS3 grade may close around `.105.50
a kg at Bangkok and Malaysian SMR20 may close around `.97.60
a kg. While it is expected that Tocom the contract for delivery in March 2015 may
close around ¥200 a kg.
Saturday, October 18, 2014
NR still under pressure as crude oil looks bearish
Fall in crude oil prices spells bad news for natural
rubber growers. With Brent crude oil prices plunging to a four-year (has fallen
to US$80 per barrel), natural rubber prices, too, are set to come under
pressure, because as crude prices drop, the rates of synthetic rubber will also
drop. Consumption of synthetic rubber in India has increased in the first
quarter of 2014-15 to 58.9% against 57.6% last year.
The government should encourage rubber
replantation and offer rubber growers subsidies to plant new trees. Automotive
Tyre Manufacturers’ Association wants these measures implemented in order to
address the reluctance of growers to plant new trees, which can’t be tapped for
their first six to seven years. Without encouragement, the ATMA fears growers
will continue to tap older lower yielding trees.
According to a Kerala state government
official, state will buy rubber at `.5 per kg more than
prevailing market price from farmers and the cabinet has decided to buy rubber
through state-run agencies. Kerala chief minister Oommen Chandy demanded a
total ban on rubber imports, besides seeking imposition of higher duty rates on
synthetic, sheet and block rubber and other rubber products.
The Indian government has fixed new gas price
at US$5.61 per million british thermal unit, increased from US$4.2 per million
british thermal unit earlier, while it has reduced diesel price in Delhi by `.3.37
per litre following sharp fall in crude oil prices in international markets.
This new gas price hike will be effective from 1st November, while the diesel
price cut will be effective from today midnight.
Rubber prices, however, improved in Asian
market as China came up with better trade data and on talks of producers in
South-East Asia planning supply curbs. According to the latest data, benchmark
RSS4 grade rubber closed at `.123 a kg at
Kottayam, while RSS3 grade closed at `.99.58 a kg at
Bangkok and Malaysian SMR20 closed at `.92.16 a kg. On
National Multi Commodity Exchange November 2014 futures closed at `.122.71
a kg, December at `.121.52, January 2015 at `.122.25, February at `.121.20,
March at `.121.80 and April at `.122 a kg. Tokyo
Commodity Exchange, October 2014 futures series closed at ¥178.2 a kg, November
at ¥181.5, December at ¥182.6, January 2015 at ¥185.6, February at ¥188.5 and
the contract for delivery in March 2015 closed at ¥189 a kg.
Wednesday, October 15, 2014
Wednesday, October 8, 2014
Meeting to plan out revival strategy
Major rubber producing countries are still
looking for solutions. The Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries
will meet on 13th October in Kuala Lumpur; while, Malaysia is also proposing to
preponed International Tripartite Rubber Council meeting scheduled for 12th December
to sometime in early November to resolve issues related to rubber industry.
The Malaysian Rubber Glove Manufacturers
Association has urged the government to provide tax breaks in Budget 2015 to
encourage rubber glove sector to be more aggressive in implementing more
automation and creation of proprietary technology.
On 7th October, benchmark RSS4 grade rubber closed
at `.121 a kg at Kottayam, while today RSS3 grade closed at `.95.76
a kg at Bangkok and Malaysian SMR20 closed at `.87.77 a kg. On
National Multi Commodity Exchange October 2014 futures were trading at `.122.15
a kg, November at `.119.95, December at `.119.65 and January
2015 at `.119.79 a kg at 12.30 IST. Tokyo Commodity Exchange, October
2014 futures series closed at ¥173.6 a kg, November at ¥175.9, December at ¥178.4,
January 2015 at ¥181.1, February at ¥181.8 and the contract for delivery in
March 2015 closed at ¥181.1 a kg.
For
2014-15 Rubber Forecast, http://rubber4u.com/Public/RForecast.pdf
Monday, October 6, 2014
Urging members to sell at floor price
Thailand and Malaysia have thrown their
support behind an Indonesian proposal to set a $1.50 per kg minimum floor price
plan. In a statement Malaysian Rubber Board said the move was in accordance
with the recommendation by International Rubber Consortium Ltd urging member
countries not to offer natural rubber below the stipulated price in order to
address the current low natural rubber price.
Dealers are confident that natural rubber
market fundamentals will remain intact and promising, as can be seen from the
latest statistical bulletin released by the International Rubber Study Group.
The global stock level has declined to approximately 2.55 million tonnes in
June 2014 from 3.01 million tonnes as at December 2013.
Indian Farmers Movement (INFAM) has urged the
Union government to formulate a national policy for road rubberisation scheme,
at least in national highways, to enhance internal consumption of natural
rubber, which would benefit lakhs of rubber farmers in the country. INFAM
pointed out that the government had taken several effective measures during
2002-03 periods when farmers faced a similar situation. Such measures are needed
now to save the rubber sector from crisis.
The latest closing of the benchmark RSS4
grade rubber was at `.120.50 a kg at Kottayam, while RSS3 grade closed at `.94.56
a kg at Bangkok and Malaysian SMR20 closed at `.87.59 a kg. On
National Multi Commodity Exchange October 2014 futures closed at `.120.34
a kg, November at `.118.14, December at `.117.88 and January
2015 at `.117.65 a kg. Today, on Tokyo Commodity Exchange, October
2014 futures series closed at ¥168.5 a kg, November at ¥171.2, December at ¥173.5,
January 2015 at ¥175.8, February at ¥177.2 and the contract for delivery in
March 2015 closed at ¥176.4 a kg.
Read
lot more in Rubber4U – 15th October 2014 issue
Thursday, October 2, 2014
How do they ensure?
Rubber futures in Tokyo and Singapore slumped
on 1st October to the lowest levels since 2009, suggesting the producers may
need to take more drastic measures. Thailand and Malaysia have thrown their
support behind an Indonesian proposal to set a $1.50 per kg minimum floor price
plan. The measure will prevent natural rubber price from falling further and
revive market sentiment. While Indonesian Rubber Association’s (GAPKINDO) move
to reach out to other major growers in a call for action is viewed as a
positive step by growers. Previous efforts to shore up prices by the three
Southeast Asian producers have had little success in the face of abundant
supply and weaker demand.
While addressing the reporters, Kerala Chief
Minister Oommen Chandy said that the state government has decided to increase
the use of rubber based bitumen for making and repairing roads and Public Works
Department would order more rubber based bitumen from Bharat Petroleum
Corporation’s Kochi Refinery. The minister further added that the hike in land
registration fee and stamp duty will not be reduced or withdrawn.
On Wednesday, the benchmark RSS4 grade rubber
closed at `.121.50 a kg at Kottayam, while RSS3 grade closed at `.95.56
a kg at Bangkok and Malaysian SMR20 closed at `.89.15 a kg. On
National Multi Commodity Exchange October 2014 futures closed at `.120.34
a kg, November at `.118.14, December at `.117.88 and January
2015 at `.117.65 a kg. Today, Tokyo Commodity Exchange, October
2014 futures series closed at ¥166.3 a kg, November at ¥170.6, December at ¥172.7,
January 2015 at ¥174.9, February at ¥175.6 and the contract for delivery in
March 2015 closed at ¥175.4 a kg.
Read
lot more in Rubber4U – 15th October 2014 issue
For
2014-15 Rubber Forecast, http://rubber4u.com/Public/RForecast.pdf
Tuesday, September 30, 2014
Friday, September 26, 2014
Nobody would be ignored
Indian rubber growers have demanded, among
other things, a temporary suspension of imports for a period of six months and
that import duty on natural rubber be hiked to 30% or `.40
a kg, whichever was higher against the current 20% or `.30
a kg, whichever was lower, to discourage manufacturing industry. While rubber goods
manufacturing industry represented by Automotive Tyre Manufacturers’
Association, argued that the import duty rate was the highest in the world.
Kerala Finance Minister K.M. Mani appealed to
the Union Government to use money from the Price Stabilisation Fund to support
growers who are reeling under a steep fall in the price of natural rubber. He
claimed that only `.14 crore of the total of `.1,000 crore
available under the Fund had been utilised. He suggested that the Union
Government double the current incentive of `.25,000 per hectare
to lure more farmers into taking replanting rubber.
Union Minister of State for Commerce and
Industry, Nirmala Sitharaman assured stakeholders that a decision on the crisis
now gripping rubber growers would be taken without favouritism. Nobody would be
ignored and everyone would be taken on board while arriving at a decision in a
time-bound manner.
Today, the benchmark RSS4 grade rubber closed
at `.121 a kg at Kottayam, while RSS3 grade closed at `.96
a kg at Bangkok and Malaysian SMR20 closed at `.88.79 a kg. On
National Multi Commodity Exchange October 2014 futures closed at `.122.80
a kg, November at `.121.43, December at `.120.83 and January
2015 at `.120.52 a kg. On Tokyo Commodity Exchange, October 2014
futures series closed at ¥171.7 a kg, November at ¥175.6, December at ¥178.5,
January 2015 at ¥182.5, February at ¥184.4 and the contract for delivery in
March 2015 closed at ¥185.4 a kg.
Read
lot more in Rubber4U – 1st October 2014 issue
For
2014-15 Rubber Forecast, http://rubber4u.com/Public/RForecast.pdf
Thursday, September 25, 2014
Gloomy outlook for plantation sector
The price of rubber remains low despite a low
supply. Tokyo rubber futures hit a fresh 5 year low on 24th September on
persistent fears of weak demand from China, China economic data was not as good
as expected and weak oil prices also weighed on the market.
Thai Democrat Party called on Prime Minister
Prayut Chan-o-cha to implement its five point proposal to urgently resolve price
crisis facing rubber growers. Deputy leader Nipit Intarasombat said the
government was on the right track to address the falling rubber prices, its
policies are designed as a long-term solution. It depends on the government to
decide if it wants to protect the farmers or the asphalt industry. Promoting
use of rubber in road construction will raise costs, but its benefits are
greater than shoring up the rubber prices.
The government should establish a policy
guaranteeing that rubber is used in road construction and repair projects. The
policy should stipulate that the rubber come from fresh supplies, not from the
government’s stockpiles.
Prime Minister Gen Prayut thanked the rubber
growers for their decision to call off a rally planned on 8th October. He has
promised the government will take measures to boost prices, such as promoting
the domestic use of rubber products, providing loans to rubber cooperatives and
slowing rubber production.
The former Rubber Board Chairman said the
production of natural rubber in the country is 8.5 lakh tonnes while the actual
demand is about 9.25 lakh tonnes, but the volume of rubber imported was several
times more. The excess rubber imported has been stockpiled by the rubber based
companies including tyre manufacturers. This has helped them crush the local rubber
producers.
A discrepancy of around one lakh tonnes of
natural rubber has surfaced in the stock level data provided by rubber board at
the end of August month. The industry finds that an anomaly in the calculations
will affect all the stakeholders in the sector. Indian Rubber Growers
Association has refuted the allegation made by Automotive Tyre Manufacturers
Association and other organisations, regarding stock of natural rubber in
India. The issue does not carry any relevance at this point of time, when rubber
prices are low. The issue of stock was raised by ATMA deliberately to divert
attention from core issues that the rubber sector in India is facing.
Prices are likely to go from bad to worse
when the rainy season ends. Today, the benchmark RSS4 grade rubber closed at `.120.50
a kg at Kottayam, while RSS3 grade closed at `.96.08 a kg at
Bangkok and Malaysian SMR20 closed at `.88.68 a kg. On
National Multi Commodity Exchange October 2014 futures closed at `.119.75
a kg, November at `.118.55, December at `.118.67 and January
2015 at `.118.79 a kg. On Tokyo Commodity Exchange, October 2014
futures series closed at ¥166.8 a kg, November at ¥170.6, December at ¥174,
January 2015 at ¥177.6, February at ¥179.6 and the contract for delivery in March
2015 closed at ¥180.9 a kg. Tommorrow the market is expected to trade between ¥180
& ¥186 a kg for March contract and most probably may close on higher side.
Read
lot more in Rubber4U – 1st October 2014 issue
For
2014-15 Rubber Forecast, http://rubber4u.com/Public/RForecast.pdf
Tuesday, September 23, 2014
Rubber prices nosedives
The economic slowdown in China followed by
sluggish demand, high inventory level, oversupply of natural rubber and drop in
the price of synthetic rubber has favoured for a further drop in the price of
natural rubber. This trend indicates the poor off take by major consuming
countries, hence a prolonged low price regime can be expected.
The United Planters’ Association of Southern
India has expressed concern over the declining prices of natural rubber and
sought the Centre’s help in resolving the crisis. The prices of RSS-4 grade
natural rubber have fallen to `.122 a kg, compared
to `.181 a kg as on 23rd September 2013, due to its
unrestricted import. Many small growers have stopped tapping operations.
While rubber goods manufacturing industries
have expressed concern over the disparity in rubber stock figures. In a
communication to the Additional Secretary (Plantations), who is also the
Chairman of the Expert Committee to draft the National Rubber Policy, the
industry said rubber stock figures at the end of August as released by the
Rubber Board show a discrepancy of approximately one lakh tonnes. According to
the industry, based on the opening stocks of rubber in April and factoring the
key parameters of production, consumption, import and export, the closing stock
ought to have been 2.85 lakh tonnes at the end of August. The discrepancy of
one lakh tonnes is huge and has significant consequences for all stakeholders.
Natural rubber prices nosedived in various
global markets today on account of poor demand and oversupply of the commodity.
The benchmark RSS4 grade rubber closed at `.122 a kg at
Kottayam, while RSS3 grade closed at `.97.26 a kg at
Bangkok and Malaysian SMR20 closed at `.88.84 a kg. On
National Multi Commodity Exchange October 2014 futures were trading at `.117.74
a kg, November at `.117.50, December at `.117.79 and January
2015 at `.117.90 a kg, at 16.00 IST. On Tokyo Commodity Exchange, September
2014 futures series closed at ¥168 a kg, October at ¥172.2, November at ¥175.2,
December at ¥178.5, January 2015 at ¥181.7 and the contract for delivery in
February 2015 closed at ¥183.5 a kg.
Read
lot more in Rubber4U – 1st October 2014 issue
For
2014-15 Rubber Forecast, http://rubber4u.com/Public/RForecast.pdf
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