Thursday, November 27, 2014

While oil falls, rubber follows it



Crude oil prices have fallen 30% since June on sluggish global demand and rising production from the US. Today, the Brent crude price closed at $77.75 a barrel, while WTI crude closed at $73.69 a barrel. US January crude contract may drop to a 4½ year low of US$69 a barrel.

China's central bank cut its benchmark lending and deposit rates last week for the first time in more than two years, taking markets completely by surprise, and is expected to ease policy further.

Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will have to take into account global factors while determining policy rates in India. The economy around the world faces a trend of disinflation owing to slowing economies and a sharp drop in crude oil prices. The past few weeks have witnessed a heated debate on whether the RBI should cut policy rates or maintain status quo. On 2nd December, one can expect a surprise.

The government may extend excise duty concessions on automobiles beyond 31st December 2014 as the industry continues to struggle with sluggish demand due to high interest rates. The government is also likely to introduce the constitutional amendment bill for the goods & services tax in the winter session of parliament.

The benchmark RSS4 grade rubber closed at `.117.50 a kg at Kottayam, while RSS3 grade closed at `.99.73 a kg at Bangkok and Malaysian SMR20 closed at `.93.97 a kg. On National Multi Commodity Exchange December 2014 futures closed at `.115.82 a kg, January 2015 at `.116.90 and February at `.118.14 a kg. On Tokyo Commodity Exchange, December 2014 futures series closed at ¥187.6 a kg, January 2015 at ¥191.5, February at ¥194.2, March at ¥197.1, April at ¥199.1 and the contract for delivery in May 2015 closed at ¥200 a kg. On Friday, most probably Tocom futures contract for delivery in May 2015 may trade between ¥196 & ¥202 a kg.

For 2014-15 Rubber Forecast: http://rubber4u.com/Public/RForecast.pdf

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