Rubber surplus to shrink

According to the International Rubber Study Group, global surplus of natural rubber will shrink 46% in 2015 as demand expands and farmers reduce tapping. Natural rubber production will outpace demand by 202,000 tonnes from 371,000 tonnes in 2014.

According to The Rubber Economist Ltd., inventories will reach 3.79 million tonnes by the end of 2014 and 4.33 million tonnes by 2015. Reserves will increase to the equivalent of 3.9 months of consumption at the end of 2014. Due to continued decline in natural rubber prices, farmers are showing less interest in tapping, while tyre demand is boosting usage. On Tokyo Commodity Exchange, the contract for delivery in January rose 0.3% to settle at 197.5 a kg.

The benchmark RSS4 grade rubber closed at `.130 a kg at Kottayam, while RSS3 grade closed at `.110.67 a kg at Bangkok and Malaysian SMR20 closed at `.100.81 a kg. On National Multi Commodity Exchange September 2014 futures were trading at `.128.70 a kg, October at `.127.90 and November at `.128 a kg, at 16.15 IST. On Tokyo Commodity Exchange, August 2014 futures series closed at ¥182.5 a kg, September at ¥188, October at ¥190.6, November at ¥193.4, December at ¥195.8 and the contract for delivery in January 2015 closed at ¥197.5 a kg.

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For 2014-15 Rubber Forecast, http://rubber4u.com/Public/RForecast.pdf