Monday, July 24, 2017

Lots of expectations, but at risk

Benchmark Tokyo rubber futures jumped to a 2-week high as stronger Shanghai futures and an overnight gain in oil prices boosted risk appetite. Hopes were high for higher oil prices at the beginning of the year with the start of the OPEC cuts. Oil prices rose and hit a one-week high, boosted by a weaker dollar and short covering, although they slipped after an industry report said U.S. inventories increased.

The oil price recovery also faltered at some point as it became evident that the glut was not diminishing as fast as it was expected and that rising U.S. shale output and continued recovery of production from exempt Libya and Nigeria were offsetting a large part of OPEC’s cuts. And if Chinese demand growth is not as strong as OPEC and the market hope for, the glut could take even longer to clear, and oil prices could stay lower for even longer.

According to data from the Rubber Trade Association of Japan showed, crude rubber inventories at Japanese ports stood at 4,999 tonnes as of 20th June, up by 5.8% from the previous inventory date. While crude rubber inventories at Japanese ports stood at 6,723 tonnes as of 10th July, up by 5.9% from the last inventory date. According to exchange, rubber inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 1.5% from the previous Friday.

Today, benchmark Tokyo rubber futures fell more than 2%. Rubber prices have come under pressure as higher inventories in both Japan and China prompted selling, while weaker oil prices and a stronger yen against the US dollar also weighed on market sentiment. The Tokyo Commodity Exchange (TOCOM) rubber contract for December delivery closed 2.4%, lower at ¥209.3 per kg, after touching a low of ¥206.9 earlier in the session.

The benchmark RSS4 grade rubber closed at `.139 a kg at Kottayam, while RSS3 grade closed at `.116.51 a kg at Bangkok and Malaysian SMR20 closed at `.98.92 a kg. On National Multi Commodity Exchange August 2017, the futures closed at `.136.72 a kg, September at `.135.96 and October 2017 closed at `.133.26 a kg. Tokyo Commodity Exchange July 2017 futures series closed at ¥202.4 a kg, August at ¥201.9, September at ¥205.3, October at ¥206.6, November at ¥208.3 and the contract for delivery in December 2017 closed at ¥209.3 a kg. On Tuesday, most probably Tocom futures contract for delivery in December 2017 may trade in the positive range of ¥209 & ¥215 a kg.


To read Rubber4U – 1st August 2017 issue: http://rubber4u.com/Public/Abcd.pdf

For 2017-18 Rubber Forecast: http://rubber4u.com/Public/RForecast.pdf

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