Lots of hope on back of slowdown

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) may cut interest rates for the sixth straight time on 5th December to support growth that has continued to slip to more than six-year low on slump in manufacturing. RBI has cut interest rates on every single occasion the multi-member monetary policy committee (MPC) has met.

GDP growth slowed sharply to a pace of 4.5% in the July-September 2019, hit by a slump in manufacturing output, which contracted by 1.0%.

United States sparking off a trade war with Brazil and Argentina, amid an ongoing dispute with China. U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday said he would impose tariffs on steel and aluminium imports from Brazil and Argentina, taking the trade war to new pastures even as the United States looks to sign a trade deal with China.

The benchmark RSS4 grade rubber closed at `.130.50 a kg at Kottayam, while RSS3 grade closed at `.110.63 a kg at Bangkok and Malaysian SMR20 closed at `.102.17 a kg. On Monday, ICEX December 2019, the futures closed at `.133.07 a kg, January 2020 at `.134.35, February at `.136.97, March at `.133.49, April at `.134.82 and May closed at `.136.16 a kg. Today, Tokyo Commodity Exchange December 2019 futures series closed at ¥169.0 a kg, January 2020 at ¥168.2, February at ¥171.3, March at ¥177.4, April at ¥184.2 and the contract for delivery in May 2020 closed at ¥189.0 a kg.

To read Rubber4U – 1st December 2019 issue: http://rubber4u.com/Public/Abcd.pdf

For National Rubber Policy: http://rubber4u.com/Public/NRP2019.pdf

For 2019-20 Rubber Forecast: http://rubber4u.com/Public/Forecast2019-20.pdf

Oil prices increased

A spokesperson for China’s Commerce Ministry, Gao Feng said at a weekly briefing in Chinese that U.S and China have agreed to remove the additional duties imposed on each other’s products in different phases after they make progress in reaching a deal. Canceling tariffs is vital to the first phase of their trade agreement, which both sides have agreed to do as negotiations progress.

But stock market retreats as Trump says he hasn't agreed to roll back China tariffs. U.S. stocks traded mostly lower after President Trump cast doubt on earlier reports that the administration would agree to roll back import duties on China as part of a œphase-one trade deal.

U.S Crude Oil WTI closed at $57.24 per barrel, while International Brent Oil Future closed at $62.51.

The benchmark RSS4 grade rubber closed at `.126 a kg at Kottayam, while RSS3 grade closed at `.106.46 a kg at Bangkok and Malaysian SMR20 closed at `.96.05 a kg. On ICEX, November 2019, the futures closed at `.128.10 a kg, December at `.129.09, January 2020 at `.130.28, February at `.125.77, March at `.127.03 and April closed at `.128.30 a kg. Tokyo Commodity Exchange November 2019 futures series closed at ¥158.9 a kg, December at ¥162.8, January 2020 at ¥166.5, February at ¥170.6, March at ¥174.9 and the contract for delivery in April 2020 closed at ¥177.3 a kg.

To read Rubber4U – 15th November 2019 issue: http://rubber4u.com/Public/Abcd.pdf

For National Rubber Policy: http://rubber4u.com/Public/NRP2019.pdf

For 2019-20 Rubber Forecast: http://rubber4u.com/Public/Forecast2019-20.pdf

Conference on Friday

A conference has been organised by Karnataka Rubber Planters Association (KRPA) in view of various issues being faced by rubber growers, especially after the steep fall in the prices of natural rubber in the last several years, on 18th October 2019 at the Dakshina Kannada District Central Cooperative Bank Hall, Kodialbail, Mangaluru at 11 a.m.

K.N. Raghavan, Executive Director of Rubber Board of India will inaugurate the conference, which will discuss subsidy issues, demand for minimum support price, issues related to tapping of latex and the like, according to N. Sharath Bhandary, president of KRPA.

The benchmark RSS4 grade rubber closed at `.120 a kg at Kottayam, while RSS3 grade closed at `.103.42 a kg at Bangkok and Malaysian SMR20 closed at `.92.47 a kg. On ICEX, November 2019, the futures closed at `.119.64 a kg, December at `.120.06, January 2020 at `.124.53, February at `.125.77, March at `.127.03 and April closed at `.128.30 a kg. Tokyo Commodity Exchange October 2019 futures series closed at ¥149.1 a kg, November at ¥151.8, December at ¥156, January 2020 at ¥157.5, February at ¥160.8 and the contract for delivery in March 2020 closed at ¥162.6 a kg. On Thurday, most probably Tocom futures contract for delivery in March may trade in the range of ¥162 & ¥166 a kg.

To read Rubber4U – 15th October 2019 issue: http://rubber4u.com/Public/Abcd.pdf

For National Rubber Policy: http://rubber4u.com/Public/NRP2019.pdf

For 2019-20 Rubber Forecast: http://rubber4u.com/Public/Forecast2019-20.pdf

As expected

The Reserve Bank of India’s six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) cut the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.15% to kick start economic growth languishing at six-year lows. The RBI maintained its accommodative stance and said it would maintain this position as long as it is necessary to revive growth, while ensuring inflation remains within target.

On 3rd October, benchmark RSS4 grade rubber closed at `.122 a kg at Kottayam, while on 4th October, RSS3 grade closed at `.100.26 a kg at Bangkok and Malaysian SMR20 closed at `.88.82 a kg. Tokyo Commodity Exchange October 2019 futures series closed at ¥149 a kg, November at ¥151.2, December at ¥152.1, January 2020 at ¥152.9, February at ¥155.6 and the contract for delivery in March 2020 closed at ¥157.1 a kg.

To read Rubber4U – 1st October 2019 issue: http://rubber4u.com/Public/Abcd.pdf

For National Rubber Policy: http://rubber4u.com/Public/NRP2019.pdf

For 2019-20 Rubber Forecast: http://rubber4u.com/Public/Forecast2019-20.pdf

R4U Facts & Figures Forecast 2019-20

Lots of expectation on back of slowdown

Oil prices edged higher on expectations that OPEC will extend an output cut agreement, while investors awaited a meeting between the United States and China that could produce a breakthrough on trade talks. The OPEC meeting will follow the G20 summit this weekend.

For the second time in seven months, a gathering of the leaders at G20 meeting will be eclipsed by a sidelines meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, who will try to revive their countries’ stalled trade negotiations.

The U.S. and China appear to be making progress on trade talks ahead of the G20 meeting, but if the U.S. and China cannot come to an agreement and the trade fight escalates, oil prices could plunge to $30 per barrel, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch. That is because the Trump administration has threatened to impose tariffs on $300 billion worth of Chinese imports, which would cover just about every Chinese good coming into the country. The economic pain on the global economy would be substantial.

U.S. President Donald Trump said he would be talking about trade with Indian Prime Minister when the two leaders sit down for a bilateral meeting on the sidelines of G20 summit meeting on Friday.

The benchmark RSS4 grade rubber closed at `.151 a kg at Kottayam, while RSS3 grade closed at `.140.83 a kg at Bangkok and Malaysian SMR20 closed at `.103.77 a kg. On ICEX, July 2019, the futures closed at `.150.84 a kg, August at `.145.52, September at `.147.69, October at `.149.16, November at `.150.66 and December closed at `.152.16 a kg. Tokyo Commodity Exchange July 2019 futures series closed at ¥234.5 a kg, August at ¥233.5, September at ¥221.9, October at ¥208.2, November at ¥199.2 and the contract for delivery in December 2019 closed at ¥194.6 a kg. On Friday, most probably Tocom futures contract for delivery in December may trade in the range of ¥189 & ¥195 a kg.

To read Rubber4U – 1st July 2019 issue: http://rubber4u.com/Public/Abcd.pdf

For National Rubber Policy: http://rubber4u.com/Public/NRP2019.pdf

Worries over slowdown but prices on upward trend

Thailand will cut rubber exports by 126,240 tonnes for four months from 20th May to shore up natural rubber prices. Thailand will proceed as agreed by International Tripartite Rubber Council and will assess results every month.

The three countries (Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia) account for about 70% of the world's natural rubber production and decided for export cutbacks of 240,000 metric tonnes collectively to support prices. Besides curbing exports, the group also agreed to try to significantly ramp up the domestic use of rubber in each of the three producers through developments such as rubberised roads. 

The benchmark RSS4 grade rubber closed at `.137 a kg at Kottayam, while RSS3 grade closed at `.125.65 a kg at Bangkok and Malaysian SMR20 closed at `.106.75 a kg. On ICEX, June 2019, the futures closed at `.138.06 a kg, July at `.139.98, August at `.134.69, September at `.136.04, October at `.137.39 and November closed at `.138.76 a kg. Tokyo Commodity Exchange May 2019 futures series closed at ¥201.8 a kg, June at ¥202.7, July at ¥202.7, August at ¥199.4, September at ¥194.1 and the contract for delivery in October 2019 closed at ¥192.8 a kg.

To read Rubber4U – 15th May 2019 issue: http://rubber4u.com/Public/Abcd.pdf

For National Rubber Policy: http://rubber4u.com/Public/NRP2019.pdf

Nervous outlook

The Indian market is getting more and more nervous as it approaches the end to the 7 stage general elections on 19th May. The results will be out on 23rd May. Brent crude futures are holding above $70 a barrel and the elevated oil prices will add to the miseries of the Indian market as the commodity price has a direct impact on the country's fiscal maths and currency.

According to a survey by FICCI, sentiment in the manufacturing sector remains positive as overall capacity utilisation rose to 80% during January-March 2019. India's April retail inflation report will be out on 13th May, while the wholesale inflation numbers will be released on 14th May. There is the anticipation for a slight uptick in inflation for April, while the market is hoping that it may still remain under the RBI's target, boosting the chance for another 25 basis point trim in key rates in June.

The two-day US-China trade talks concluded without bearing any fruit. However, hopes have not died completely as both the countries have agreed to hold more trade talk’s in the future in Beijing.

The benchmark RSS4 grade rubber closed at `.131.50 a kg at Kottayam, while RSS3 grade closed at `.122.32 a kg at Bangkok and Malaysian SMR20 closed at `.104.98 a kg. On ICEX, May 2019, the futures closed at `.132.47 a kg, June at `.134.57, July at `.136.09, August at `.133.36, September at `.134.69 and October closed at `.136.03 a kg. Tokyo Commodity Exchange May 2019 futures series closed at ¥195 a kg, June at ¥196, July at ¥195.9, August at ¥193.5, September at ¥188 and the contract for delivery in October 2019 closed at ¥186.7 a kg. On Monday, most probably Tocom futures contract for delivery in October may trade in the range of ¥185 & ¥190 a kg.

To read Rubber4U – 15th May 2019 issue: http://rubber4u.com/Public/Abcd.pdf

Face Book: https://www.facebook.com/Rubber4U-1706372399645495/

Indonesia to propose rubber export restriction

According to a senior trade ministry official, Indonesia will propose implementation of the Agreed Export Tonnage Scheme (AETS) and expansion of rubber usage in construction at International Tripartite Rubber Council meeting in Bangkok during 21-22 February, to prop up prices for natural rubber.

After a prolonged delay, Indian Union Ministry of Commerce and Industry has finally prepared and released a draft National Rubber Policy. The draft is put up in the public domain in order to seek wider consultation and feedback/suggestions by 25th February 2019 from the stakeholders so as to provide final shape to the policy.

The benchmark RSS4 grade rubber closed at `.124.50 a kg at Kottayam, while RSS3 grade closed at `.118.36 a kg at Bangkok and Malaysian SMR20 closed at `.102.49 a kg. On ICEX, March 2019, the futures closed at `.127.01 a kg, April at `.130.15, May at `.126.91, June at `.128.17, July at `.129.45 and August closed at `.130.74 a kg. Tokyo Commodity Exchange February 2019 futures series closed at ¥193.5 a kg, March at ¥190.3, April at ¥192.1, May at ¥194.1, June at ¥195.5 and the contract for delivery in July 2019 closed at ¥197.5 a kg. On Thursday, most probably Tocom futures contract for delivery in July may trade in the range of ¥194 & ¥200 a kg.

To read Rubber4U – 1st March 2019 issue: http://rubber4u.com/Public/Abcd.pdf

Face Book: https://www.facebook.com/Rubber4U-1706372399645495/

For 2018-19 Rubber Forecast: http://rubber4u.com/Public/RForecast.pdf

Market to remain under pressure

The Reserve Bank of India has cut its key interest rate by a quarter of a point to 6.25%, in a bid to boost the economy. RBI has forecast GDP growth of 7.4% for 2019-20 with the first half growth expected to be in the range of 7.2-7.4% and 7.5% in the third quarter.

OPEC’s crude oil production in January was 30.98 million bpd, down by 890,000 bpd from December 2018, the largest monthly decline in the cartel’s production since January 2017 when the initial production cut deal began. OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) with production data for January is scheduled to be released next on 12th February.

The benchmark RSS4 grade rubber closed at `.123.50 a kg at Kottayam, while RSS3 grade closed at `.114.48 a kg at Bangkok and Malaysian SMR20 closed at `.95.66 a kg. On ICEX, February 2019, the futures closed at `.123.30 a kg, March at `.126.26, April at `.128.33, May at `.126.91, June at `.128.17 and July closed at `.129.45 a kg. Tokyo Commodity Exchange February 2019 futures series closed at ¥189.3 a kg, March at ¥182.3, April at ¥178.9, May at ¥178.9, June at ¥178.8 and the contract for delivery in July 2019 closed at ¥179.2 a kg. On Wednesday, most probably Tocom futures contract for delivery in July may trade in the range of ¥176 & ¥181 a kg.

To read Rubber4U – 15th February 2019 issue: http://rubber4u.com/Public/Abcd.pdf

Face Book: https://www.facebook.com/Rubber4U-1706372399645495/

For 2018-19 Rubber Forecast: http://rubber4u.com/Public/RForecast.pdf

Uncertain outlook but lots of expectations

Oil prices rose as investors expect US sanctions on Venezuela and production cuts effective January 2019, led by Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, to head off any glut, but closed in red. The global economic outlook and prospects for growth in fuel demand have been clouded by poor economic data in China and US-China trade tensions. Brent crude futures closed at $61.98 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude closed at $53.16 a barrel.

The Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is scheduled to meet from 5 to 7th February for the sixth and final bi-monthly monetary policy review for 2018-19. In its last review, the MPC had kept the key lending rates unchanged. Retail inflation during the October-December quarter stood at 2.6% against RBI's projected trajectory of 3.8%. CPI inflation is expected to remain below the RBI's target of 4% in 2018-19. This gives room to change and RBI is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points. Finance Minister Piyush Goyal is scheduled to address customary post Budget meeting of the central board of Reserve Bank of India on 9th February and highlight the key points of interim Budget.

The Tokyo Commodity Exchange announced the first delivery of TSR20 Rubber since its listing on 9th October 2018. Forty of the February 2019 contracts were delivered totaling 200 tonnes.

The domestic prices of natural rubber in the key spot markets are likely to remain under pressure in the coming days due to bearish trend in the global market and subdued demand from domestic market.

The benchmark RSS4 grade rubber closed at `.123.50 a kg at Kottayam, while RSS3 grade closed at `.113.42 a kg at Bangkok and Malaysian SMR20 closed at `.95 a kg. On ICEX, February 2019, the futures closed at `.122.17 a kg, March at `.124.20, April at `.126.94, May at `.126.91, June at `.128.17 and July closed at `.129.45 a kg. Tokyo Commodity Exchange February 2019 futures series closed at ¥187 a kg, March at ¥184.3, April at ¥182.4, May at ¥180.2, June at ¥178.7 and the contract for delivery in July 2019 closed at ¥179.1 a kg. On Wednesday, most probably Tocom futures contract for delivery in July may trade in the range of ¥177 & ¥182 a kg.

To read Rubber4U – 15th February 2019 issue: http://rubber4u.com/Public/Abcd.pdf

Face Book: https://www.facebook.com/Rubber4U-1706372399645495/

For 2018-19 Rubber Forecast: http://rubber4u.com/Public/RForecast.pdf

Indian Union Budget 2019 Highlights:

On 1st February 2019, Finance Minister Piyush Goyal presented the Union Budget in Lok Sabha.

• Individual taxpayers with annual income up to `.5 lakh to get full tax rebate.
• Individuals with gross income up to `.6.5 lakh will not need to pay any tax if they make investments in provident funds and prescribed equities.
• Standard tax deduction for salaried persons raised from `.40,000 to `.50,000.
• TDS threshold on rental income raised from `.1.8 lakh to `.2.4 lakh.
• Gratuity limit increased from `.10 lakh to `.30 lakh.
•  Benefit of rollover of capital tax gains to be increased from investment in one residential house to that in two residential houses, for a taxpayer having capital gains up to `.2 crore; can be exercised once in a lifetime.
• Benefits under Sec 80(i)BA being extended for one more year, for all housing projects approved till end of 2019-2020.
• Businesses with less than `.5 crore annual turnover, comprising over 90% of GST payers, will be allowed to return quarterly returns.
• 2% interest subvention on loan of 1 crore for GST registered MSME units.
• Within almost two years, almost all assessment and verification of IT returns will be done electronically by an anonymized tax system without any intervention by tax officials.
• 2% interest subvention to farmers pursuing animal husbandry and fisheries.
• Mega Pension Yojana, namely Pradhan Mantri Shram Yogi Mandhan, to provide assured monthly pension of `.3000 per month, with contribution of `.100 per month, for workers in unorganised sector after 60 years of age.
• Under Pradhan Mantri Kisan Samman Nidhi, `.6000 per year for each farmer, in three installments, to be transferred directly to farmers' bank accounts, for farmers with less than 2 hectares land holding.

Fiscal deficit has been bought down to 3.4%; CAD (current account deficit) likely to be 2.5% of GDP this year.

Government will try to address rural distress

The Indian Union Budget 2019 will be presented on 1st February. If Finance Minister chooses to present a full Budget instead of an interim one, he can well announce some radical reforms without worrying about their popular reception. At the 1st February budget, the sixth by this government and final one before the general elections, is likely to include some tax sops for the middle class and also unveil measures to lessen rural stress. A farm package has been in the works with various options including income transfer, a more liberal minimum support price scheme and interest waivers for crop loans repaid on time. Last year finance minister began after 11 am and it was close to two hour long speech. Budget session 2019 will commence from 31st January and will end on 13th February.

The oil market fell as a widespread economic slowdown, which may dent growth in demand. International Brent crude oil futures closed at $61.64 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures closed at $53.69 per barrel. Oil prices fell as financial markets reeled from concerns about a global economic slowdown. Rising oil output from the United States, together with the effects of the U.S-China trade war were weighing on crude prices. These bearish market factors offset several bullish influences from around the world, including production cuts led by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and declining output from Iran and Venezuela.

The benchmark RSS4 grade rubber closed at `.124.50 a kg at Kottayam, while RSS3 grade closed at `.113.37 a kg at Bangkok and Malaysian SMR20 closed at `.95.59 a kg. On ICEX, February 2019, the futures closed at `.123.94 a kg, March at `.125.83, April at `.128.07, May at `.126.91, June at `.128.17 and July closed at `.129.45 a kg. Tokyo Commodity Exchange January 2019 futures series closed at ¥199.5 a kg, February at ¥199.5, March at ¥189.6, April at ¥186.2, May at ¥184.3 and the contract for delivery in June 2019 closed at ¥182.8 a kg. On Monday, most probably Tocom futures contract for delivery in June 2019 may trade in the range of ¥180 & ¥184 a kg.

To read Rubber4U – 1st February 2019 issue: http://rubber4u.com/Public/Abcd.pdf

Face Book: https://www.facebook.com/Rubber4U-1706372399645495/

For 2018-19 Rubber Forecast: http://rubber4u.com/Public/RForecast.pdf

OPTIMA - 6

India Rubber Expo 2019

Hoping for the best

Union Minister for Commerce and Industry, Suresh Prabhu inaugurated three day event - India Rubber Expo 2019 at Bombay Exhibition Centre, Mumbai, India. Union Commerce Minister Suresh Prabhu said rubber industry is a truly homegrown industry which is having a deep impact on several global markets. Rubber industry will continue to grow faster, create more employment opportunities, increase exports and add to the economic output of India. Rubber industry can also contribute significantly in India’s efforts to become a 5 trillion dollar economy.

According to Oke Nurwan, director general of foreign trade at Indonesia’s Trade Ministry, a technical team at the International Tripartite Rubber Council has proposed cutting shipments of natural rubber by 300,000 tonnes this year as part of efforts to improve prices. Indonesian and Malaysian governments have agreed on proposal for combined cut, while Thailand so far hasn’t. Officials from the three countries were due to gather in Bangkok during 19-20 January.

The benchmark RSS4 grade rubber closed at `.125 a kg at Kottayam, while RSS3 grade closed at `.113.37 a kg at Bangkok and Malaysian SMR20 closed at `.96.17 a kg. On ICEX, February 2019, the futures closed at `.126.16 a kg, March at `.128.39, April at `.125.64, May at `.126.91, June at `.128.17 and July closed at `.129.45 a kg. Tokyo Commodity Exchange January 2019 futures series closed at ¥190 a kg, February at ¥187.3, March at ¥186, April at ¥185.5, May at ¥185 and the contract for delivery in June 2019 closed at ¥184.8 a kg. On Friday, most probably Tocom futures contract for delivery in June 2019 may trade in the range of ¥183 & ¥186 a kg.

To read Rubber4U – 1st February 2019 issue: http://rubber4u.com/Public/Abcd.pdf

For 2018-19 Rubber Forecast: http://rubber4u.com/Public/RForecast.pdf

Worries over economic slowdown

Oil prices slipped on concerns over economic growth after talks fell short of offering concrete steps to end the Sino-U.S trade war, although OPEC led production cuts bolstered sentiment in crude markets. Oil prices were also supported by comments from U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Thursday that the central bank had the ability to be patient on monetary policy. Brent crude futures closed at $60.48 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude closed at $51.59 a barrel.

Kerala rubber growers have decided to form a company to venture into manufacturing value added products as demand has fallen for locally produced natural rubber. While International Tripartite Rubber Council will be meeting in Bangkok on 19th and 20th January 2019 to find ways to boost rubber demand.

Benchmark Tokyo rubber future ended slightly higher after surging to a nearly 7 month high, supported by hopes that U.S-Sino talks may resolve a trade war and on some fears that Thailand’s storm last week may have affected rubber output.

The benchmark RSS4 grade rubber closed at `.125 a kg at Kottayam, while RSS3 grade closed at `.110.57 a kg at Bangkok and Malaysian SMR20 closed at `.97.27 a kg. On ICEX, January 2019, the futures closed at `.125.99 a kg, February at `.127.99, March at `.130.05, April at `.125.64, May at `.126.91 and June closed at `.128.17 a kg. Tokyo Commodity Exchange January 2019 futures series closed at ¥187.8 a kg, February at ¥184.7, March at ¥184.8, April at ¥184.8, May at ¥184.2 and the contract for delivery in June 2019 closed at ¥183.5 a kg.

To read Rubber4U – 15th January 2019 issue: http://rubber4u.com/Public/Abcd.pdf

For 2018-19 Rubber Forecast: http://rubber4u.com/Public/RForecast.pdf

Sentiment remains bearish

Oil prices rose on hopes that US-Chinese talks in Beijing would bring a halt to trade disputes between the world's biggest economies, while OPEC led supply cuts tightened markets. International Brent crude futures were at $57.77 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures were at $48.85 per barrel.

The Indian rupee plunged by 53 paise to close at 70.21 against the US dollar amid renewed concerns over widening of current account deficit following constant rise in global crude oil prices.

Western India’s automotive exhibition ‘Pune Auto Expo’ will be inaugurated by Maharashtra chief minister Devendra Fadnavis at Ganesh Kala Krida indoor stadium-Pune, on 11th January.  The four-day exhibition theme scheduled during 11 - 14 January 2019 is eco-friendly transportation of smart city. There will be two days of technical conference, business meets and industrial visits to automobile companies in the region. Experts will share their knowledge and deliberate on topics focusing on the technological trends and business practices.

The International Tripartite Rubber Council, comprising of Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand are meeting in Bangkok on 19th and 20th January 2019 to find ways to boost rubber demand.

Overall sentiment remains bearish due to subdued demand from tyre manufacturers and expectations of a rise in global rubber output. However, a spike in crude oil prices due to a cut in output by West Asian and other producers might lend support to rubber prices.

The benchmark RSS4 grade rubber closed at `.124.50 a kg at Kottayam, while RSS3 grade closed at `.108.37 a kg at Bangkok and Malaysian SMR20 closed at `.96.51 a kg. On ICEX, January 2019, the futures closed at `.126.08 a kg, February at `.128.05, March at `.130.19, April at `.125.64, May at `.126.91 and June closed at `.128.17 a kg. Tokyo Commodity Exchange January 2019 futures series closed at ¥181.4 a kg, February at ¥180.2, March at ¥181.4, April at ¥181.7, May at ¥181.8 and the contract for delivery in June 2019 closed at ¥181.6 a kg. On Wednesday, most probably Tocom futures contract for delivery in June 2019 may trade in the range of ¥182 & ¥188 a kg.

To read Rubber4U – 15th January 2019 issue: http://rubber4u.com/Public/Abcd.pdf

For 2018-19 Rubber Forecast: http://rubber4u.com/Public/RForecast.pdf

Tropical Storm: Thailand's worst in nearly 30 years

Thai Meteorological Department warned of torrential downpours and strong winds in 15 provinces in Thailand south, home to natural rubber plantations. The strong winds are forecast with waves up to 3 to 5 meters high in the Gulf and 2 to 3 meters high in the Andaman Sea. There are fears that the storm will be the worst to hit Thailand since 1989.

The benchmark RSS4 grade rubber closed at `.125 a kg at Kottayam, while RSS3 grade closed at `.108.70 a kg at Bangkok and Malaysian SMR20 closed at `.96.36 a kg. On ICEX, January 2019, the futures closed at `.127.63 a kg, February at `.129.41, March at `.131.60, April at `.125.64, May at `.126.91 and June closed at `.128.17 a kg. Tokyo Commodity Exchange January 2019 futures series closed at ¥175.2 a kg, February at ¥175.8, March at ¥176, April at ¥176.6, May at ¥176.4 and the contract for delivery in June 2019 closed at ¥177 a kg.

To read Rubber4U – 15th January 2019 issue: http://rubber4u.com/Public/Abcd.pdf

For 2018-19 Rubber Forecast: http://rubber4u.com/Public/RForecast.pdf