Tuesday, February 5, 2019

Uncertain outlook but lots of expectations

Oil prices rose as investors expect US sanctions on Venezuela and production cuts effective January 2019, led by Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, to head off any glut, but closed in red. The global economic outlook and prospects for growth in fuel demand have been clouded by poor economic data in China and US-China trade tensions. Brent crude futures closed at $61.98 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude closed at $53.16 a barrel.

The Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is scheduled to meet from 5 to 7th February for the sixth and final bi-monthly monetary policy review for 2018-19. In its last review, the MPC had kept the key lending rates unchanged. Retail inflation during the October-December quarter stood at 2.6% against RBI's projected trajectory of 3.8%. CPI inflation is expected to remain below the RBI's target of 4% in 2018-19. This gives room to change and RBI is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points. Finance Minister Piyush Goyal is scheduled to address customary post Budget meeting of the central board of Reserve Bank of India on 9th February and highlight the key points of interim Budget.

The Tokyo Commodity Exchange announced the first delivery of TSR20 Rubber since its listing on 9th October 2018. Forty of the February 2019 contracts were delivered totaling 200 tonnes.

The domestic prices of natural rubber in the key spot markets are likely to remain under pressure in the coming days due to bearish trend in the global market and subdued demand from domestic market.

The benchmark RSS4 grade rubber closed at `.123.50 a kg at Kottayam, while RSS3 grade closed at `.113.42 a kg at Bangkok and Malaysian SMR20 closed at `.95 a kg. On ICEX, February 2019, the futures closed at `.122.17 a kg, March at `.124.20, April at `.126.94, May at `.126.91, June at `.128.17 and July closed at `.129.45 a kg. Tokyo Commodity Exchange February 2019 futures series closed at ¥187 a kg, March at ¥184.3, April at ¥182.4, May at ¥180.2, June at ¥178.7 and the contract for delivery in July 2019 closed at ¥179.1 a kg. On Wednesday, most probably Tocom futures contract for delivery in July may trade in the range of ¥177 & ¥182 a kg.

To read Rubber4U – 15th February 2019 issue: http://rubber4u.com/Public/Abcd.pdf
For 2018-19 Rubber Forecast: http://rubber4u.com/Public/RForecast.pdf

No comments:

Post a Comment